Election Betting Poll Shows US Opposition

Election Betting Poll Shows US Opposition

A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 60% of Americans oppose election betting, as regulators and lawmakers debate how prediction markets should be regulated.

Opinion | This Is What Will Ruin Public Opinion Polling for Good

Instead of navigating the obstacles to conduct polls with human respondents, pollsters are running A.I. simulations instead. Why?

Do AI and bogus respondents threaten polling’s future?

Courtney Kennedy, vice president of methods and innovation, answers some common questions about the current polling landscape in the U.S.

Polls (/c/Polls) - OddsRabbit

This community is just for polls - polls on literally anything your heart desires! Ask all the multiple choice questions you can think of!

Exclusive: Americans Now Overwhelmingly Oppose New Data Centers Near Them

A new Heatmap Pro poll shows a rapid shift in public opinion since last fall.

Why does every poll seem to show a tossup now?

Campaigns see internal polls as tools for fundraising

We Haven’t Seen the Worst of What Gambling and Prediction Markets Will Do to America

I don’t think people have thought hard enough about how bad this could get.

Election polling errors across time and space

Are election polling misses becoming more prevalent? Are they more likely in some contexts than others? Here we undertake an over-time and cross-national assessment of prediction errors in pre-election polls. Our analysis draws on more than 30,000 national polls from 351 general elections in 45 countries between 1942 and 2017. We proceed in the following way. First, building on previous studies, we show how errors in national polls evolve in a structured way over the election timeline. Second, we examine errors in polls in the final week of the election campaign to assess performance across election years. Third, we undertake a pooled analysis of polling errors—controlling for a number of institutional and party features—that enables us to test whether poll errors have increased or decreased over time. We find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the recent performance of polls has not been outside the ordinary. However, the performance of polls does vary across political contexts and in understandable ways.

Americans Oppose AI Data Centers in Their Area

Seven in 10 Americans oppose the construction of an AI data center in their local area, including 48% strongly opposed.

More Than Half of Men Aged 18 to 49 Have Already Fallen Into Online Sports Betting

A recent survey found that more than half of American men aged 18 to 49 said they had an active sports betting account.

The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses

Polls have had a number of high-profile misses in recent elections. We review the current polling environment, the performance of polls in a historical context, the mechanisms of polling error, and the causes of several recent misses in Britain and the US. Contrary to conventional wisdom, polling errors have been constant over time, although the level of error has always been substantially beyond that implied by stated margins of error. Generally, there is little evidence that voters lying about their vote intention (so-called ‘shy’ voters) is a substantial cause of polling error. Instead, polling errors have most commonly resulted from problems with representative samples and weighting, undecided voters breaking in one direction, and to a lesser extent late swings and turnout models. We conclude with a discussion of future directions for polling both in terms of fixing the problems identified and new approaches to understanding public opinion.

Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls so Variable When Votes Are so Predictable?

As most political scientists know, the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election can be predicted within a few percentage points (in the popular vote), based on information available months before the election. Thus, the general election campaign for president seems irrelevant to the outcome (except in very close elections), despite all the media coverage of campaign strategy. However, it is also well known that the pre-election opinion polls can vary wildly over the campaign, and this variation is generally attributed to events in the campaign. How can campaign events affect people's opinions on whom they plan to vote for, and yet not affect the outcome of the election? For that matter, why do voters consistently increase their support for a candidate during his nominating convention, even though the conventions are almost entirely predictable events whose effects can be rationally forecast? In this exploratory study, we consider several intuitively appealing, but ultimately wrong, resolutions to this puzzle, and discuss our current understanding of what causes opinion polls to fluctuate and yet reach a predictable outcome. Our evidence is based on graphical presentation and analysis of over 67,000 individual-level responses from forty-nine commercial polls during the 1988 campaign and many other aggregate poll results from the 1952–1992 campaigns. We show that responses to pollsters during the campaign are not generally informed or even, in a sense we describe, "rational." In contrast, voters decide which candidate to eventually support based on their enlightened preferences, as formed by the information they have learned during the campaign, as well as basic political cues such as ideology and party identification. We cannot prove this conclusion, but we do show that it is consistent with the aggregate forecasts and individual-level opinion poll responses. Based on the enlightened preferences hypothesis, we conclude that the news media have an important effect on the outcome of Presidential elections–-not due to misleading advertisements, sound bites, or spin doctors, but rather by conveying candidates' positions on important issues. Winner of the Pi Sigma Alpha Awardfor the best paper at the previous year's meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association. Replication data at the Harvard Dataverse: [https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/I7GIKD](https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/I7GIKD).

Election Rumor Rundown for October 13: Emerging rumors around voting machines and ‘ballot dumping’

DHS reports misconstrue vulnerabilities as having been exploited, “Ballot Dumping” in Valley Center misleadingly suggest mass voter fraud, and prediction markets already advertising election bettin…

FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages

A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.

FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages

A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.