The first DemosAU/PremierNational Victorian poll since Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan, with the Coalition leading 55–45 after preferences.
Victorian Election Polls 2026: The Third Corner
Updated 16 October 2026: the Coalition leads 53.9–46.1 across the eleven Victorian polls since the change of Premier, with One Nation on 22.7 per cent.
Victorian polls have Coalition leading Labor by narrow to large margins
About three months out from the Victorian state election, the five polls released since the state got a new premier all show the Coalition in front.
2026 Victorian Election Pendulum
(Update – Three days after this post was published, Jacinta Allan was replaced as Premier by Ben Carroll. The post has been left as originally published.) Victoria’s state election on 2…
Victorian polls: RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic - The Poll Bludger
Amid an unclear picture overall, two Victorian state polls show encouraging results for the Greens.
An Assessment of the Causes of the Errors in the 2015 UK Gseneral Election Opinion Polls
Summary The opinion polls that were undertaken before the 2015 UK general election underestimated the Conservative lead over Labour by an average of 7 percentage points. This collective failure led politicians and commentators to question the validity and utility of political polling and raised concerns regarding a broader public loss of confidence in survey research. We assess the likely causes of the 2015 polling errors. We begin by setting out a formal account of the statistical methodology and assumptions that are required for valid estimation of party vote shares by using quota sampling. We then describe the current approach of polling organizations for estimating sampling variability and suggest a new method based on bootstrap resampling. Next, we use poll microdata to assess the plausibility of different explanations of the polling errors. Our conclusion is that the primary cause of the polling errors in 2015 was unrepresentative sampling.
Poll tracker – VIC 2026 state election – The Swing Is On
Victorian state primary vote polling since the 2022 election.
Victorian election polls 2026 — average and ledger — Australian Election Tracker
Victorian state election 2026 polls: sourced statewide primary votes and a transparent weighted average with uncertainty bands. Latest tracker average (as of 2026-10-10): Labor 24.5%, Coalition 29.1%, One Nation 22.6%, Greens 14.9%, Others 8.9%. Not a forecast.
Victorian State Voting Intention: One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of ALP (25.5%) and L-NP Coalition (21.5%) on primary vote nine months before Victorian State Election - Roy Morgan Research
Only nine months before a State Election, Victorian electors are split with One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of the governing ALP (25.5%), and the official Opposition L-NP Coalition (21.5%). In addition, 13.5% support the Greens and a further 13% support other minor parties and Independents according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from February 13-16, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,462 electors.
Revealed: How leadership coup has changed Labor’s electoral fortunes
With 101 days to go until the state election, the results of the first Resolve Political Monitor since Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan are mixed for the new premier.
Victorian State Voting Intention: L-NP (26%) and ALP (26%) level on primary and ahead of One Nation (23.5%); however, L-NP narrowly leads ALP on two-party preferred basis (51% cf. 49%) - Roy Morgan Research
In early August the L-NP Coalition 26% (up 2% since April) and ALP 26% (up 0.5%) are level on primary vote ahead of One Nation 23.5% (down 1%) and 24.5% (down 1.5%) support Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 12.5% (down 1%), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8% (down 0.5%) according to a special SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.
Jacinta Allan's resignation triggers chaotic leadership spill
A chaotic caucus meeting triggered by Jacinta Allan's resignation this morning ended with former deputy premier Ben Carroll unanimously elected Victorian premier.
The Performance of the Polls in the 2019 General Election - British Polling Council
The Performance of the Polls in the 2019 General Election