A research-backed AI scenario forecast.
Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet
We, Gary Marcus, author, scientist, and noted skeptic of generative AI, and Miles Brundage, an independent AI policy researcher who recently left OpenAI and is bullish on AI progress, have agreed to the following bet, at 10:1 odds, with criteria drawn from two earlier Substack essays by Gary that proposed criteria for
25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI
With a review of last year’s predictions
Deep Future - AI scenario planning
Deep Research for scenario planning. Stress-test your strategy against thousands of possible futures with a realtime AI scenario generation engine.
AI 2040: Plan A
A detailed forecast and recommendation for how the US, China and the rest of the world should navigate superintelligence.
AI 2040: Plan A
A detailed forecast and recommendation for how the US, China and the rest of the world should navigate superintelligence.
State of AI Report 2025
The State of AI Report analyses the most interesting developments in AI. Read and download here.
Being Realistic About AI Agents in 2025 - Perilous Tech
There are few predictions I can make with more certainty than that we’ll hear the word “agent” so many times in 2025 that we’ll never watch another spy movie
State of AI 2026 | The Industry-Defining Report
Explore how AI is shaping the digital economy in 2026, with 80+ pages of data on ad spend, app downloads, web behavior, user demographics, and so much more.
Forecasting Research Institute on Twitter / X
Introducing the Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIRO): a dashboard of catastrophic risk forecasts from an ensemble of frontier AI models, updated weekly.Current ensemble forecasts of an AI-related catastrophe that kills at least 10% of the global population:• By 2030: 0.47%• By… pic.twitter.com/vc7F00L0Oa— Forecasting Research Institute (@Research_FRI) September 11, 2026
AI Almost Started a U.S.–China War — and No One Seems to Care
The tech world is too busy dreaming up imaginary doomsday scenarios to focus on a very real one that flared up between nuclear powers.
How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far? – Forecasting Research Institute
We take an initial look at where median forecasts are (mostly) underestimating and (sometimes) overestimating AI progress, adoption, and impact.
Europe 2031 — What getting AI wrong means for us
A five-year scenario about AI and Europe's impending slide into irrelevance, with a 2034 epilogue that describes how the collapse of the European model could have been prevented.
The 2025 AI Agent Index
Agentic AI systems are increasingly capable of performing complex tasks with limited human involvement. The 2025 AI Agent Index documents the origins, design, capabilities, ecosystem, and safety features of 30 prominent AI agents based on publicly available information and correspondence with developers.
