A detailed forecast and recommendation for how the US, China and the rest of the world should navigate superintelligence.
AI 2040: Plan A
A detailed forecast and recommendation for how the US, China and the rest of the world should navigate superintelligence.
We're Not Ready for Superintelligence
Building Political Superintelligence
Amidst fears of dystopia, a blueprint for how we use AI to reinvent the way we govern ourselves
Import AI 452: Scaling laws for cyberwar; rising tides of AI automation; and a puzzle over gDP forecasting
How much could AI revolutionize the economy?
Import AI 447: The AGI economy; testing AIs with generated games; and agent ecologies
What might a superintelligence arcology be like?
Import AI 456: RSI and economic growth; radical optionality for AI regulation; and a neural computer
What laws does superintelligence demand?
25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI
With a review of last year’s predictions
AI Almost Started a U.S.–China War — and No One Seems to Care
The tech world is too busy dreaming up imaginary doomsday scenarios to focus on a very real one that flared up between nuclear powers.
Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet
We, Gary Marcus, author, scientist, and noted skeptic of generative AI, and Miles Brundage, an independent AI policy researcher who recently left OpenAI and is bullish on AI progress, have agreed to the following bet, at 10:1 odds, with criteria drawn from two earlier Substack essays by Gary that proposed criteria for
Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040
Some context for this post: I’ve been working part-time as a consultant for the AI Futures Project over the last year.
Personal Superintelligence
Explore Meta's vision of personal superintelligence, where AI empowers individuals to achieve their goals, create, connect, and lead fulfilling lives. Insights from Mark Zuckerberg on the future of AI and human empowerment.
I expect rapid progress but not towards general superintelligence
I’ve often been surprised when I hear from top researchers in industry that they think AI will be better than them at their job in a few years, and I didn’t really know why I doubted it.
Jacob Coxon Warns of Human Extinction and Triggers a Preference Cascade
CEOs of major AI labs, and employees of major AI labs, including OpenAI and Anthropic, often say they plan to build superintelligence soon, as in within a few years create AIs that are superior to humans at essentially all cognitive tasks.
