This post is additional information on preference flows related to a post I published earlier today, “Liberal, National and One Nation – Friends, Enemies or Frenemies?” With One Nation&…
Victorian Liberals to preference One Nation at state election
The preference strategy, while designed to galvanise the anti-Labor vote across the state, risks a backlash in the party’s urban and middle-suburb heartland.
The Pattern of One Nation support in NSW
In the near three decades I’ve been following One Nation’s election results, one thing has been constant. Whatever the party’s overall level of vote, its geographic distribution o…
Who are the Voters Swinging to One Nation? - DemosAU
DemosAU's Federal MRP Model, released earlier this week, projects One Nation would win 12 seats (based on the model's central forecast), if the results of our
Coalition back in front of One Nation following change of Liberal Leader and men swing heavily to the L-NP - Roy Morgan Research
New Coalition Leader Angus Taylor has led the Liberal-National Coalition back in front of One Nation on his first weekend as Liberal Leader with the Roy Morgan Poll showing primary support for the L-NP Coalition up 3.5% to 23.5%, and One Nation down 3.5% to 21.5%.
One Nation is soaring in polls. Winning power is much harder.
The nationalist party is riding high, but will struggle to convert its poll leads into parliament seats
Left-Wing Governments and Far-Right Success
In recent decades, support for the far right has surged in many countries. One common explanation for this is that far-right support is a backlash against left-wing governments and their policies. We investigate the causal effect of the partisan make-up of governments on the electoral results of far-right parties. Evidence from over-time comparative data and a quasi-experimental analysis based on a regression discontinuity design in Spain indicates that far-right parties benefit electorally when the current government is on the left. In further analyses, we employ a novel regression discontinuity design (RDD)-based sampling strategy to examine original individual-level survey data from Spanish municipalities close to the discontinuity cutoff. These data show that the likely mechanism underlying the backlash effect is an ideological shift to the right among the electorate when left-wing parties govern. Overall, the far right benefits more when the mainstream left governs than when the mainstream right does.
Policy matrix — Australian Election Tracker
Compare Greens, Labor, Liberal–Nationals and One Nation positions, or open any issue or party for a dedicated sourced policy profile.
The Geometry of Alliances: Vote Transfer Modelling in French Two-Round Elections
Two-round legislative elections are decided not only by first-round vote shares, but by how voters whose preferred party did not advance redistribute their votes among the surviving candidates. We develop a principled model of this transfer process, grounded in multi-dimensional ideological embeddings derived from the Chapel Hill Expert Survey, and apply it to French legislative elections. Calibrated on the 2017 and 2022 elections, the model is evaluated on the unusually complex 2024 contest, in which three ideologically distinct blocs reached the second round simultaneously, achieving 90.34 percent constituency-level accuracy. We show that ideological proximity alone explains the large majority of vote transfers, that a simple left-right axis is insufficient to capture the relevant distances, and that the structural configuration of the 2024 electorate was far less favorable to the far right than pre-election forecasts suggested.
Hanson’s support for Trump a drag on One Nation vote: poll
Pauline Hanson’s unyielding support for US President Donald Trump and his war against Iran is the biggest impediment to the growing popularity of One Nation.
Persuasion and resistance: A survey experiment on messaging for and against One Nation | School of Politics & International Relations
Since the May 2025 federal election, One Nation's primary vote has risen sharply across published polling. If an election were held today, it would likely be the second-largest bloc in the House of Representatives. What drives this surge — and what, if anything, suppresses it — remains contested, with explanations ranging from economic grievance and cultural backlash to anti-establishment disaffection. While these accounts have been tested experimentally for radical-right parties abroad, they remain largely untested in Australia.
One Nation overtakes Labor, Liberals in Victoria; Allan’s rating dives
An exclusive poll shows the premier’s approval rating has sunk to a record low and the Labor government is on track to be turfed out after 12 years in power.
One Nation surge creates headache for the Coalition in Victoria's east
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has campaigned in Gippsland this week, hoping to lure back voters who are turning towards a surging One Nation.
Ideological Segregation Online and Offline *
Abstract. We use individual and aggregate data to ask how the Internet is changing the ideological segregation of the American electorate. Focusing on onli
Victorian State Voting Intention: L-NP (26%) and ALP (26%) level on primary and ahead of One Nation (23.5%); however, L-NP narrowly leads ALP on two-party preferred basis (51% cf. 49%) - Roy Morgan Research
In early August the L-NP Coalition 26% (up 2% since April) and ALP 26% (up 0.5%) are level on primary vote ahead of One Nation 23.5% (down 1%) and 24.5% (down 1.5%) support Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 12.5% (down 1%), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8% (down 0.5%) according to a special SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.
Left & Right: The Psychological Significance of a Political Distinction
This book brings together for the first time an updated, revised collection of influential essays and articles that capture some of the most exciting scientific and scholarly contributions to the topic ...
