The most recent turmoil in the stock market caused by Donald Trump’s ill-considered policy to impose tariffs on the entire world, has brought up one legitimate question: what is the correct attitude towards stock market declines and crashes?
Repeat After Me: The Markets Are Not the Economy (Published 2020)
The two have been intertwined in the American psyche since the 1929 stock crash and the onset of the Great Depression. But stocks are not a reliable gauge of overall economic health.
The A.I. Boom and the Spectre of 1929
As some financial leaders fret publicly about the stock market falling to earth, Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book recounts the greatest crash of them all.
Le fétichisme de la Bourse
Traduction de "The stock market fetish" de Branko Milanovic
Stockmarkets are booming. But the good times are unlikely to last
Although AI is propelling valuations, there are deeper forces at work
Report - Brace for Impact: Protecting People and the Economy when the AI Bubble Bursts — Open Markets Institute
Our report in partnership with Americans for Financial Reform outlines vulnerabilities in the financial system and wider economy that could intensify an AI crash into the next financial crisis, and provides steps that policymakers can take to mitigate the damage and protect everyday people from bear
Kraft Heinz, the U.S. Budget, and Big Stock Losses Feature in Warren Buffett’s Letter (Published 2019)
The market rout late last year and losses at Kraft Heinz hurt Berkshire’s profits. Mr. Buffett also talked about his appetite for huge deals and the U.S. budget deficit.
The Value of Nothing: Capital versus Growth - American Affairs Journal
Throughout 2021, U.S. stock market valuations have hovered near all‑time highs. In June, the unadjusted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 index eclipsed the tech boom record of 2000. Many other asset classes have attained, or nearly attained, record valuations as well. Stratospheric valuations may be partially attributable to the unique circumstances surrounding Covid-19...
The Dalio fallacy – explaining bond markets
The bear market in bonds is a trend, with three fundamental causes
Attention Is All You Need #2: This Time Is Different
What can we learn from the 2007 Global Financial Crisis and the 1990’s dot-com bubble?
I'm Not Convinced The AI Bubble Exists
The AI bubble is a speculative concept that the AI industry is extremely over-valued. If true, the value of most companies involved in AI (several of whom are worth well over a trillion dollars) will collapse, devastating the entire economy. If you check any online discussion about the financial situation …
Why Trump Will Lose His Trade War
His people don’t know what they’re doing or what they want
Thoughts on the Trump Tariffs - Conversable Economist
It will take some time for the effects of President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement of higher US tariffs to become apparent. Here, I'll just offer some notes and quick reactions. 1) The announced tariffs represent a very large increase. Here's a figure showing historical US tariff rates. You will notice that the average rates have
