when everyone has a different explanation of why the bad numbers are not that bad or why the small number is still very important, the simplest explanation is that the bad number is actually just indeed very bad
Christopher Mims
So I guess either Bluesky becomes a nonprofit or we all start sharing our Threads handles on here…?
Aug 12, 2026 at 8:28 PM
The Winning Variant
A/B testing, algorithmic optimization, and the small act of ignoring both — and what it means to make something by hand when a number can tell you what would have worked better.
Misperception of Exponential Growth: Are People Aware of Their Errors?
Previous research shows that individuals make systematic errors when judging exponential growth, which has harmful effects for their financial well-being. This study analyzes how far individuals are aware of their errors and how these errors are shaped by arithmetic and conceptual problems. Whereas arithmetic problems could be overcome using computational assistance like a pocket calculator, this is not the case for conceptual problems, a term we use to subsume other error drivers like a general misunderstanding of exponential growth or overwhelming task complexity. In an incentivized experiment, we find that participants strongly overestimate the accuracy of their intuitive judgment. At the same time, their willingness to pay for arithmetic assistance is too high on average, often much above the actual benefits a calculator provides. Using a multitier system of task complexity we can show that the willingness to pay for arithmetic assistance is hardly related to its benefits, indicating that participants do not really understand how the interplay of arithmetic and conceptual problems shape their errors in exponential growth tasks. Our findings are relevant for policymaking and financial advisory practice and can help to design effective approaches to mitigate the detrimental effects of misperceived exponential growth.
The natural selection of bad science
Abstract. Poor research design and data analysis encourage false-positive findings. Such poor methods persist despite perennial calls for improvement, sugg
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design
1. Engineering is done with numbers. Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.
The Fallacy of Endless Economic Growth
What economists around the world get wrong about the future.
π = 3: Pointing out flaws does not require solving them
I think science often takes the requirement that criticism be constructive too far. Most definitions of constructive criticism refer to feedback that is intended to help by pointing out flaws in a way that is specific, actionable, and respectful. This is good, I’m in favor of it. However, in practice, the demands for constructive criticism in science go much further: frequently, we are told that, to publicly point out serious flaws, you must also solve them, and to do otherwise is somehow rude, unscholarly, or low effort.
Narcissistic number
In number theory, a narcissistic number[1][2] (also known as a pluperfect digital invariant (PPDI),[3] an Armstrong number[4] (after Michael F. Armstrong)[5] or a plus perfect number)[6] in a given number base b {\displaystyle b} is a number that is the sum of its own digits each raised to the power of the number of digits.
Algorithmic personalization of information can cause inaccurate generalization and overconfidence.
Saying the obvious thing
Stating the obvious is surprisingly useful. Most of your knowledge lives below the threshold of conscious awareness, so it’s possible for a piece of writing to remind you of what you already know. It’s common to know you don’t like something without being quite sure why, and reading an obvious statement (such as “accuracy matters, even when you agree with the broad strokes”) can help clarify why you find certain things distasteful.
Producing The Perfect Token
The unspoken inference quality gap and how numerics determine if the inference you're paying for is worth it.
The typographic scale
The typographic scale has been used for centuries to choose harmonious font sizes. It has been likened to a harmonious musical scale. But there are *flaws* in those historical values.
Kill Math
The power to understand and predict the quantities of the world should not be restricted to those with a freakish knack for manipulating abstract symbols.
Control: Why Big Giving Falls Short
fenc.es — be wrong on the internet, productively
Trace the map of reasonable disagreement. Break arguments into statements, rate confidence and importance, and find the crux.
When it comes to our digital lives, too many people care about bigness and an imagined potential to achieve their own bigness, and too few care about connections and the potential to achieve meaningful connections.
Your Internet Doesn't Need to Be Big
www.aaronrosspowell.comI know we care about numbers, and it's not that they're not worth looking at, but maybe Bluesky not having explosive growth is good for the Atmosphere that's building beyond it, and patience is more important than the first attempt gathering every community possible in its early years. Long game.
Anuj Ahooja
The open social web is the long game
