Common Causes of Very Bad Decisions

Italian psychologist Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini was once asked why people keep making the same mistakes.

What Is To Be Done?

I don’t want to criticize people who seem to like the situation… Instead I’ll focus on people who are trying to do something other than be a number, even as they are subsumed by the new reality of number supremacy.

I don't want the details

Why reasonable explanations are one of the easiest ways to avoid changing anything.

The Winning Variant

A/B testing, algorithmic optimization, and the small act of ignoring both — and what it means to make something by hand when a number can tell you what would have worked better.

Misperception of Exponential Growth: Are People Aware of Their Errors?

Previous research shows that individuals make systematic errors when judging exponential growth, which has harmful effects for their financial well-being. This study analyzes how far individuals are aware of their errors and how these errors are shaped by arithmetic and conceptual problems. Whereas arithmetic problems could be overcome using computational assistance like a pocket calculator, this is not the case for conceptual problems, a term we use to subsume other error drivers like a general misunderstanding of exponential growth or overwhelming task complexity. In an incentivized experiment, we find that participants strongly overestimate the accuracy of their intuitive judgment. At the same time, their willingness to pay for arithmetic assistance is too high on average, often much above the actual benefits a calculator provides. Using a multitier system of task complexity we can show that the willingness to pay for arithmetic assistance is hardly related to its benefits, indicating that participants do not really understand how the interplay of arithmetic and conceptual problems shape their errors in exponential growth tasks. Our findings are relevant for policymaking and financial advisory practice and can help to design effective approaches to mitigate the detrimental effects of misperceived exponential growth.

The natural selection of bad science

Abstract. Poor research design and data analysis encourage false-positive findings. Such poor methods persist despite perennial calls for improvement, sugg

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did..." - Unknown

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little." — Unknown

Listen to Your Community, But Don’t Let Them Tell You What to Do

You know how interviewers love asking about your greatest weakness, or the biggest mistake you’ve ever made? These questions may sound formulaic, maybe even borderline cliché, but be careful when you answer: they are more important than they seem. So when people ask me what our biggest mistake was

The Math Is Haunted — overreacted

A taste of Lean.

Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design

1. Engineering is done with numbers. Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

The Fallacy of Endless Economic Growth

What economists around the world get wrong about the future.

Eliezer Yudkowsky Is Frequently, Confidently, Egregiously Wrong

It is bad when people who are consistently egregiously wrong become deferred to on everything

A fact-based worldview for all | Gapminder

We live in a globalized world, not only in terms of trade and migration. More people than ever care about global development. But most people have severe misconceptions about contemporary global development. We know, because we have tested people’s knowledge. One of the main reasons for this is that students don’t learn to understand the world based on statistics and facts. Instead, we have a dramatic worldview formed by outdated school books and sensationalist news-stories. People intuitively believe that most things are getting worse. The dramatic worldview leads to irrational decisions by individuals, nonprofits, governments and business. For the first time in human history reliable statistics exist. There’s data for almost every aspect of global development. The data shows a very different picture: a world where most things improve; a world that is not divided; and a world where the fast population growth will soon be over. The world has never been less bad. But that doesn’t mean it’s perfect.

π = 3: Pointing out flaws does not require solving them

I think science often takes the requirement that criticism be constructive too far. Most definitions of constructive criticism refer to feedback that is intended to help by pointing out flaws in a way that is specific, actionable, and respectful. This is good, I’m in favor of it. However, in practice, the demands for constructive criticism in science go much further: frequently, we are told that, to publicly point out serious flaws, you must also solve them, and to do otherwise is somehow rude, unscholarly, or low effort.