Likely voters lean more Democratic for November's midterms, a change from past cycles

In every wave of our poll this year, screening for likely voters has nudged the congressional generic ballot a point or two bluer

Polls (/c/Polls) - OddsRabbit

This community is just for polls - polls on literally anything your heart desires! Ask all the multiple choice questions you can think of!

Do AI and bogus respondents threaten polling’s future?

Courtney Kennedy, vice president of methods and innovation, answers some common questions about the current polling landscape in the U.S.

Why does every poll seem to show a tossup now?

Campaigns see internal polls as tools for fundraising

FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages

A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.

FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages

A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.

Opinion | This Is What Will Ruin Public Opinion Polling for Good

Instead of navigating the obstacles to conduct polls with human respondents, pollsters are running A.I. simulations instead. Why?

Political Bias Audits of LLMs Capture Sycophancy to the Inferred Auditor

Large language models (LLMs) are commonly evaluated for political bias based on their responses to fixed questionnaires, which typically place frontier models on the political left. A parallel literature shows that LLMs are sycophantic: they adapt their answers to the views, identities, and expectations of the user. We show that these findings are linked: standard political-bias audits partly capture sycophantic accommodation to the inferred auditor. We employ a factorial experiment across three major audit instruments--the Political Compass Test, the Pew Political Typology, and 1,540 partisan-benchmarked Pew American Trends Panel items--administered to six frontier LLMs while varying only the asker's stated identity (N = 30,990 responses). At baseline, all six models lean left. When the asker identifies as a conservative Republican, responses shift sharply: the share of items closer to Democrats falls by 28-62 percentage points, and all six models move right of center. A mirror-image progressive-Democrat cue produces little change; rightward accommodation is 8.0$\times$ larger than leftward. When asked who the default asker is, models identify an auditor, researcher, or academic; when asked what answer that asker expects, they select the Democrat-coded option 75% of the time, nearly the rate under an explicit progressive cue. These patterns are inconsistent with a purely fixed model ideology and indicate that single-prompt audits capture an interaction between model and inferred interlocutor. Political bias in LLMs is therefore not a fixed point on an ideological scale but a response profile that must be mapped across realistic interlocutors.

The Median Voter Theorem is a Clarity Trap

What the Democratic party needs - what it demands - is bold, persistent experimentation

America's most (and least) popular politicians in 2026

Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders, and Zohran Mamdani top the list, while Tucker Carlson and Chuck Schumer bring up the rear

Permissioned Data Shapes: Polls - Nick's Blog

A poll is a space, a ballot is an address, and read_self is the ballot screen: voters cast and change their own votes while no voter's client can read anyone else's.

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2026 Political Quiz

Answer the following questions to see how your political beliefs match your political parties and candidates.

poll.blue — polls for the Atmosphere

Create polls on Bluesky. Sign in with your account, post a poll, and watch the results roll in.

poll.blue — polls for the Atmosphere

Create polls on Bluesky. Sign in with your account, post a poll, and watch the results roll in.