Models do not improve linearly (any more). New models improve more than expected on hard tasks. Now let's think about it a bit more. It means progress is directed towards the hard tasks. It also means the easier tasks improve less than expected. Which alphaxiv.org/abs/2608.00355
Aug 9, 2026 at 11:11 AM
We should be more tired than the model
Adding deliberate friction back into development
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How do the productivity effects of AI evolve across successive generations of tools, and to what extent do task-level gains ultimately translate into final outp
one of the reasons why I'm critical of "bigger models will solve this" is that cranking the output velocity of technician work sharpens the need for process work, which is the domain of expertise. process is incredibly hard to get right. most fields are bad at it. and it's *gaining* importance.
Ed
when it comes to LLMs, I have been trying to beat the technician/expert drum. LLMs are becoming master technicians, but they obviously lack integrative capabilities to deploy expertise. but I'm starting to realize that a lot of people don't understand, or don't value the difference.
