AI models have likely reached parity with superforecasters on ForecastBench
New results from the ForecastBench leaderboard suggest the gap between frontier AI and elite human forecasters is closing.
Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?
41% chance. Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027. Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or if after January 1, 2027 we have results from enough LLMs (e.g. the leading models from the major AI labs at the time) to be confident this will not occur. If The Forecasting Research Institute tells us how this market should resolve, then we will go with what they say.
How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far? – Forecasting Research Institute
We take an initial look at where median forecasts are (mostly) underestimating and (sometimes) overestimating AI progress, adoption, and impact.
Georgi Gerganov on Twitter / X
llama.cpp at 100k starsnow that 90% of the code worldwide is being written by AI agents, I predict that within 3-6 months, 90% of all AI agents will be running locally with llama.cpp 😄Jokes aside, I am going to use this small milestone as an opportunity to reflect a bit on… pic.twitter.com/BpN5VL1bYV— Georgi Gerganov (@ggerganov) March 30, 2026
Zhijing Jin on Twitter / X
🚀 Can #AI agents actually do science?Current agents can optimize for predictive fit — but fail at recovering the underlying physical laws.We introduce Stargazer🪐: a scalable benchmark + environment for astronomical discovery🔭Agents must:• propose hypotheses•… pic.twitter.com/hGIjz4KJMT— Zhijing Jin (@ZhijingJin) May 7, 2026
KillBench: Discovering Hidden Biases of LLMs
1M+ experiments exposing bias in critical AI decision-making
State of AI 2025: 100T Token LLM Usage Study | OpenRouter
Read OpenRouter's 2025 State of AI report — an empirical 100 trillion token study of real LLM usage, model trends, and developer insights.
Forecasting Research Institute on Twitter / X
Introducing the Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIRO): a dashboard of catastrophic risk forecasts from an ensemble of frontier AI models, updated weekly.Current ensemble forecasts of an AI-related catastrophe that kills at least 10% of the global population:• By 2030: 0.47%• By… pic.twitter.com/vc7F00L0Oa— Forecasting Research Institute (@Research_FRI) September 11, 2026
Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet
We, Gary Marcus, author, scientist, and noted skeptic of generative AI, and Miles Brundage, an independent AI policy researcher who recently left OpenAI and is bullish on AI progress, have agreed to the following bet, at 10:1 odds, with criteria drawn from two earlier Substack essays by Gary that proposed criteria for
Suhail on Twitter / X
Oh, this is coming back in such a big way this year with AI. We were a bit too early.Remember: Browser = OS pic.twitter.com/YoMaS8cjmI— Suhail (@Suhail) June 23, 2025
What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2026?
Ed Zitron's AI prediction track record
Lexicon: How China talks about 'agentic AI' - DigiChina
Three months after the Chinese AI company DeepSeek shocked global markets with a highly capable reasoning model, another China-linked company made a splash with a capable agentic AI system. Did Manus, released in March 2025, portend Chinese leadership in AI systems that go beyond chatbots to take action on the user’s behalf? Victor Mustar, head […]
