President Trump’s recent pronouncements on tariffs have received considerable attention from analysts, policymakers, and commentators. This column takes a step back and considers some of the broader arguments for raising tariffs – revenue, restriction, and reciprocity – and the potential repercussions. Even if Trump does not proceed with (all of) the announced tariffs, the increased uncertainty is likely to put off firms from trading with or from the US, lowering US exports and imports beyond the imposition of higher tariffs. In the longer term, we can expect a gradual decoupling of trade between the US and other countries.
Trump’s tariffs: Disregarding lessons from history and scenarios and probable outcomes
History is full of evidence that tariffs harm economic performance. This column assesses the two waves of globalisation in modern history and how they were interrupted by barriers to trade. The first wave started in the mid-19th century and lasted until WWI, while the second wave started after WWII and lasted until the Global Crisis of 2008-09. The most likely scenario going forward will feature tariffs around 12-14% on average, a mild recession, and a small hit to US longer-run potential. However, achieving diplomatic normalcy may take years of good US behaviour, and it is unlikely during the Trump administration.
Thoughts on the Trump Tariffs - Conversable Economist
It will take some time for the effects of President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement of higher US tariffs to become apparent. Here, I'll just offer some notes and quick reactions. 1) The announced tariffs represent a very large increase. Here's a figure showing historical US tariff rates. You will notice that the average rates have
U.S. and Canada fall deeper into a trade war with new tariffs as talks collapse and blame is spread
President Donald Trump’s import taxes will hit about 5% of what Canada ships to the United States every year, including products ranging from hockey sticks to tongue depressors.
Why higher tariffs won’t shrink the trade deficit
In President Donald Trump’s executive order calling for reciprocal tariffs, he said that their main purpose is to reduce the US trade deficit. Economists have long argued that tariffs have no effect on trade balances.
La diplomatie bazooka des tarifs douaniers de Trump
traduction française de "The bazooka diplomacy of Trump’s tariffs" de Michael Gasiorek & Nicolo Tamberi
« Tariffs are coming » : menace de taxes douanières et rapports de force sous Trump II
La seconde présidence de Trump vit à l’heure de Game of Thrones. Un vent froid d’hiver souffle, chargé de tarif douanier, de bluff et de chantage.
Ce sont les consommateurs américains, non les étrangers, qui payent les droits de douane de Trump
traduction française du billet de blog "How goes the trade war? Consumers, not foreigners, are paying the Trump tariffs" de Paul Krugman
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney calls new U.S. tariffs ‘a miscalculation’ after trade talks collapse
The U.S. import taxes will apply to hockey sticks, building materials, liquors and certain kinds of clothing. Carney said “Canada will match those tariffs dollar for dollar.”
More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs
The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump
Why Trump Will Lose His Trade War
His people don’t know what they’re doing or what they want
Do Import Tariffs Protect U.S. Firms?
The authors find a swath of firms suffering valuation losses on tariff-announcement days and a link between those losses and the firms' future performance.
The Weaponized World Economy
When Washington announced a “framework deal” with China in June, it marked a silent shifting of gears in the global political economy. This was not the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s imagined epoch of “liberation” under unilateral American greatness or a return to the Biden administration’s dream of managed great-power rivalry. Instead, it was the true opening of the age of weaponized interdependence, in which the United States is discovering what it is like to have others do unto it as it has eagerly done unto others.
Move fast and break kings
There is another policy response to tariffs, one that will substantially lower prices for Canadians, while incubating profitable, export-oriented Canadian tech firms, whose products can be sold by community-based small and medium enterprises, to the benefit of the Canadian news and culture industry, Canadian software firms, and Canadian consumers.
L’importance historique des nouveaux droits de douane de Trump
Traduction française du billet de blog "The historic significance of Trump's tariff actions" de Douglas A. Irwin (PIIE)
Ce que Trump peut apprendre de la Grande-Bretagne victorienne à propos du commerce international
traduction française du billet de blog "What the Edwardians could teach Trump about trade" de Paul Krugman
America's been arguing over trade for more than 250 years
As the United States marks the 250th anniversary of declaring its independence from Britain, Americans continue a tradition begun even longer ago: debating trade and tariffs. In recent years, disagreements over the US role in the world economy have grown particularly intense amid rising geopolitical tensions. A brief look at history offers an opportunity to reflect on the importance of international trade to the US economy over time.
