25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI
With a review of last year’s predictions
Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet
We, Gary Marcus, author, scientist, and noted skeptic of generative AI, and Miles Brundage, an independent AI policy researcher who recently left OpenAI and is bullish on AI progress, have agreed to the following bet, at 10:1 odds, with criteria drawn from two earlier Substack essays by Gary that proposed criteria for
Meet Ed Zitron, AI’s original prophet of doom - Fast Company
Zitron has built a small media empire on spleen-venting rants arguing that AI is not only a bubble but a fraud—one that’s headed for a spectacular crash. What if he’s right?
How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far? – Forecasting Research Institute
We take an initial look at where median forecasts are (mostly) underestimating and (sometimes) overestimating AI progress, adoption, and impact.
Who earned the score? - Sensemaker
This week's AI claims blurred models, systems, simulations and people. The evidence becomes clearer when the tested subject comes first.
Ed Zitron on big tech, backlash, boom and bust: ‘AI has taught us that people are excited to replace human beings’
His blunt, brash scepticism has made the podcaster and writer something of a cult figure. But as concern over large language models builds, he’s no longer the outsider he once was
Liron Shapira on Twitter / X
Meet the guy who invented @OpenAI's RLHF technique (https://t.co/opc5yWzi2e).His name is Dr. @PaulFChristiano, PhD Comp Sci from UC Berkeley.Paul says there's a 50% chance of doom once AI systems are human-level intelligent.So do we keep training smarter AI systems or no?🤔 pic.twitter.com/5U1EMsPADB— Liron Shapira (@liron) April 25, 2023
We're Not Building AI Features for the Money
From the Zed Blog: Why Zed invests in AI, and the future we're building toward.
Dr. Émile P. Torres (they/them) on Twitter / X
What's amazing about this is every time there's a new grand prediction about AI, it's like people forget the 500 previous predictions from the same group of people that were completely wrong. AI by 2025 (Musk). AI doing most coding by 2025 (Amodei). Etc. Why is that?? https://t.co/t9CcMQO4EN— Dr. Émile P. Torres (they/them) (@xriskology) January 28, 2026
Why it’s getting harder to measure AI performance
The most famous chart in AI might be obsolete soon.
Zhijing Jin on Twitter / X
🚀 Can #AI agents actually do science?Current agents can optimize for predictive fit — but fail at recovering the underlying physical laws.We introduce Stargazer🪐: a scalable benchmark + environment for astronomical discovery🔭Agents must:• propose hypotheses•… pic.twitter.com/hGIjz4KJMT— Zhijing Jin (@ZhijingJin) May 7, 2026
Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case
OpenAI financial data leaked to the industry’s biggest hater settles an open question — just not in his favor
Want to understand the current state of AI? Check out these charts.
According to Stanford’s 2026 AI Index, AI is sprinting, and we’re struggling to keep up.
