Causality

A Statistical Interrogation of “The Case for Causality, Part 1” by Rausch and Haidt – Matthew B. Jané

I don’t know anything about the literature on social media and mental health so my focus on this post is to interrogate the statistical approach taken by the article written by Zach Rausch and Jonathon Haidt (link here) and to some extent the original meta-analysis by Ferguson.

Thoughts on narratives and the role of AI and validators going forward

I wanted to quickly share some reflections and connect some dots around ongoing work with Prashant on causal claims and language in Economics. We have extended

About Causal Islands

Causal Islands is about connecting people across industries, disciplines, and communities to share, design, and learn about the future of computing together.

The C-Word: Scientific Euphemisms Do Not Improve Causal Inference From Observational Data

Causal inference is a core task of science. However, authors and editors often refrain from explicitly acknowledging the causal goal of research projects; they refer to causal effect estimates as associational estimates. This commentary argues that using the term “causal” is necessary to improve the quality of observational research. Specifically, being explicit about the causal objective of a study reduces ambiguity in the scientific question, errors in the data analysis, and excesses in the interpretation of the results.

AI Epistemic Risks: Emerging Mechanisms & Evidence

<p>Advances in artificial intelligence pose risks to humanity's collective capacity to form accurate beliefs, reason well, and maintain a healthy information en

The end of theory? AI and ignorance in financial markets

AI’s growing role in finance challenges traditional expectations of transparency and theoretical understanding. While machine learning (ML) models enhance financial decision-making, they remain largely agnostic to established financial theories, producing knowledge and ignorance in ways that differ from traditional models like VaR, DCF, and Black-Scholes. This essay explores the decoupling of AI models from theoretical financial knowledge and the resulting forms of ignorance. Using 22 semi-structured interviews, we investigate how ML models generate epistemic uncertainties. We focus on causal ignorance: AI systems, including those supported by XAI, fail to provide genuine causal explanations. Because understanding causation is inherently theoretical, AI-driven finance remains theory-agnostic and marked by theoretical ignorance. We explore how this ignorance differs from that of traditional models and what it implies for the role of theory in finance. Finally, we present three possible scenarios for the future of theory in finance and outline directions for further research.

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

I saw in a recent issue of the Times Literary Supplement that you have been critical of the “chambermaid” study which purported to show that people were losing weight without changing their diet or exercise. I agree that this study did not show what it claimed.

Statistical Models Answer the Fundamental Clinical Question and Provide Clinical Trial Estimands – Statistical Thinking

Specific goals and estimation targets for randomized clinical trials have still not been well defined for general outcome variables. Proponents of causal inference calculus have claimed to define goals and estimands, but they have largely done so in a way that is not concordant with the most popular design, the parallel-group randomized trial. Causal inferential methods require the use of counterfactuals that are not informed by any data (outside of crossover studies) and make assumptions that are unverifiable, e.g., about the correlation structure of potential outcomes. Causal inferential structure also leads practitioners to act as if marginal treatment effect estimates are both helpful in decision making and transport to populations when in fact neither is true. Heterogeneity of participants within a treatment arm dictates heterogeneity of outcomes and heterogeneity of treatment effects when quantified on an absolute scale. Statistical models are best poised for estimation and causal inference that is specific to patient types. The increasing generality and robustness of statistical models bolsters the case. In this article I provide a succinct statement of the clinical goal of a parallel-group trial, and statistical estimands for it in the context of a general family of robust and efficient ordinal models that contain virtually all routinely used statistical models and tests as special cases.

The Jevons Paradox of AI - Wesley's notes

Why AI can make us more productive but will never save us time

Unified framework for information integration based on information geometry

Significance Measuring the degree of causal influences among multiple elements of a system is a fundamental problem in physics and biology. We propose a unified framework for quantifying any combination of causal relationships between elements in a hierarchical manner based on information geometry. Our measure of integration, called geometrical integrated information, quantifies the strength of multiple causal influences among elements by projecting the probability distribution of a system onto a constrained manifold. This measure overcomes mathematical problems of existing measures and enables an intuitive understanding of the relationships between integrated information and other measures of causal influence such as transfer entropy. Inspired by the integration of neural activity in consciousness studies, our measure should have general utility in analyzing complex systems. , Assessment of causal influences is a ubiquitous and important subject across diverse research fields. Drawn from consciousness studies, integrated information is a measure that defines integration as the degree of causal influences among elements. Whereas pairwise causal influences between elements can be quantified with existing methods, quantifying multiple influences among many elements poses two major mathematical difficulties. First, overestimation occurs due to interdependence among influences if each influence is separately quantified in a part-based manner and then simply summed over. Second, it is difficult to isolate causal influences while avoiding noncausal confounding influences. To resolve these difficulties, we propose a theoretical framework based on information geometry for the quantification of multiple causal influences with a holistic approach. We derive a measure of integrated information, which is geometrically interpreted as the divergence between the actual probability distribution of a system and an approximated probability distribution where causal influences among elements are statistically disconnected. This framework provides intuitive geometric interpretations harmonizing various information theoretic measures in a unified manner, including mutual information, transfer entropy, stochastic interaction, and integrated information, each of which is characterized by how causal influences are disconnected. In addition to the mathematical assessment of consciousness, our framework should help to analyze causal relationships in complex systems in a complete and hierarchical manner.

Prof. Lee Cronin on Twitter / X

It is easy to see that biology does things that cannot be computed in advanced because the future is not controlled by statistics, it is controlled by creative actions. This means today’s statistically-driven GenAI is fundamentally unintelligent.— Prof. Lee Cronin (@leecronin) March 28, 2026

AI Use Appears to Have a "Boiling Frog" Effect on Human Cognition, New Study Warns

A new study claims to offer the first causal link between AI dependency and cognitive erosion. Researchers warn of long-term implications.

Spurious Correlations

For his Spurious Correlations project, Tyler Vigen compares data sets that are the very definition of “correlation is not causation”. For instance, the number o

"AI" is Automated Inequality

Tech bros still dominate the discussions about so-called "AI" with false claims. Even most "AI"-critical researchers spend much of their time meticulously debunking (always only a subset of) claims, leaving vast areas of the economic consequences of "AI" unexplored. (Even the "AI"-evangelist Economi

Bayesian Thinking in Everyday Life

More than 200 years ago, Thomas Bayes came up with a brilliant idea that has helped shape the world today, called Bayes Theorem. This…

Mathematical methods and human thought in the age of AI

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the name popularly given to a broad spectrum of computer tools designed to perform increasingly complex cognitive tasks, including many that used to solely be the...