Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games on COVID-19 incidence in Japan: a synthetic control approach

Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games on COVID-19 incidence in Japan: a synthetic control approach

Background The Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games (23 July–8 August 2021) were held in the middle of Japan’s fifth wave of COVID-19, when the number of cases was on the rise, and coincided with the fourth state of emergency implemented by the host city, Tokyo. Aim This study aimed to assess whether the hosting of the Games was associated with a change in the number of COVID-19 cases in Japan using a synthetic control method. Methods A weighted average of control countries with a variety of predictors was used to estimate the counterfactual trajectory of daily COVID-19 cases per 1 000 000 population in the absence of the Games in Japan. Outcome and predictor data were extracted using official and open sources spanning several countries. The predictors comprise the most recent country-level annual or daily data accessible during the Games, including the stringency of the government’s COVID-19 response, testing capacity and vaccination capacity; human mobility index; electoral democracy index and demographic, socioeconomic, health and weather information. After excluding countries with missing data, 42 countries were ultimately used as control countries. Results The number of observed cases per 1 000 000 population on the last day of the Games was 109.2 (7-day average), which was 115.7% higher than the counterfactual trajectory comprising 51.0 confirmed cases per 1 000 000 population. During the Olympic period (since 23 July), the observed cumulative number of cases was 61.0% higher than the counterfactual trajectory, comprising 143 072 and 89 210 confirmed cases (p=0.023), respectively. The counterfactual trajectory lagged 10 days behind the observed trends. Conclusions Given the increasing likelihood that new emerging infectious diseases will be reported in the future, we believe that the results of this study should serve as a sentinel warning for upcoming mega-events during COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Concerns and controversies at the 2020 Summer Olympics

A number of concerns and controversies arose leading up to the 2020 Summer Olympics, which took place in Tokyo, Japan. The games were postponed until July 2021 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The IOC stated that their Japanese partners and the former prime minister Shinzo Abe "made it very clear" in 2020, "that Japan could not manage a postponement beyond next summer [2021] at the latest".[1] Just weeks before the opening of the Tokyo Olympics, honorary patron Emperor Naruhito was said to be "extremely worried about the current status of coronavirus infections",[2] and was "concerned that while there [were] voices of anxiety among the public, the holding (of the events) may lead to the expansion of infections".[3]

Opposition in Japan to the Olympics during the COVID-19 pandemic

Little is known about the responses of citizens toward sporting mega-events held during a period of extended disasters, such as the 2020 Olympics held during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to clarify the factors affecting citizens’ attitudes by testing the following hypotheses: the perception of high cost, the burden on medical institutions, and high risk of infectious disease spread negatively affect attitudes, while the perception of pandemic countermeasures, economic benefits, and athletes positively affect attitudes. Based on an online survey of 800 citizens before the 2020 Olympics, the hypotheses were tested using logistic regression models with the extracted factors as the explanatory variables and the attitude toward the Olympics as the objective variable. The test results confirm the factors lineated by the hypotheses, except for the perception of high cost. The fear of a healthcare system collapse from the medical burden of dealing with an outbreak has an especially strong negative effect on the attitude toward the Olympics. These results have important implications for city governments and municipalities and suggest that they should not underestimate citizens’ perceptions and attitudes when organizing mega-events and formulating proper communication. Further, the results may offer insights for the smooth strategic planning of large-scale events during unprecedented disasters.

Opposition in Japan to the Olympics during the COVID-19 pandemic

Little is known about the responses of citizens toward sporting mega-events held during a period of extended disasters, such as the 2020 Olympics held during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to clarify the factors affecting citizens’ attitudes by testing the following hypotheses: the perception of high cost, the burden on medical institutions, and high risk of infectious disease spread negatively affect attitudes, while the perception of pandemic countermeasures, economic benefits, and athletes positively affect attitudes. Based on an online survey of 800 citizens before the 2020 Olympics, the hypotheses were tested using logistic regression models with the extracted factors as the explanatory variables and the attitude toward the Olympics as the objective variable. The test results confirm the factors lineated by the hypotheses, except for the perception of high cost. The fear of a healthcare system collapse from the medical burden of dealing with an outbreak has an especially strong negative effect on the attitude toward the Olympics. These results have important implications for city governments and municipalities and suggest that they should not underestimate citizens’ perceptions and attitudes when organizing mega-events and formulating proper communication. Further, the results may offer insights for the smooth strategic planning of large-scale events during unprecedented disasters.

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2020 Summer Olympics

The 2020 Summer Olympics, officially the Games of the XXXII Olympiad and officially branded as Tokyo 2020, were an international multi-sport event held from July 23 to August 8, 2021, in Tokyo, Japan, with some of the preliminary sporting events beginning on July 21, 2021. Originally scheduled to take place from July 24 to August 9, 2020, the Tokyo Games were postponed until 2021 on March 24, 2020 as a result of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the only such postponement in the history of the Olympic Games. However, the Tokyo 2020 branding was retained for marketing purposes.

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Asian Games organizers fear big disruptions from typhoon | The Asahi Shimbun Asia & Japan Watch

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Asian Games: Governing body urged to address participant surge: sources

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Asian Games are bigger than the Summer Olympics in athlete numbers | The Asahi Shimbun Asia & Japan Watch

NAGOYA—How big are the Asian Games?

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