Augmenting Research Ideation with Data: An Empirical Investigation...

The unintended consequences of large language models as a labor-augmenting technology in science

As a labor-augmenting technology, large language models (LLMs) have the potential to accelerate scientific activity across the research pipeline. But even if LLMs perform on par with human experts at selected tasks, their use will bring unintended consequences as they alter the balance of frictions and inducements that steer the allocation of research effort across projects. Here we develop a simple mathematical model to illustrate. In fields where LLMs are useful primarily as tools for discovering promising projects, researchers will become more selective about what they publish; where they facilitate the process of publishing existing data, researchers will become less selective. By allowing scientists to work more quickly, LLMs raise the opportunity cost of researcher time, creating incentives to refine papers less thoroughly before moving on. Enticing as it is to imagine that, by saving us time on mundane tasks, LLMs will provide us with more time to think deeply and develop projects completely, our results temper such hopes.

The unintended consequences of large language models as a labor-augmenting technology in science

As a labor-augmenting technology, large language models (LLMs) have the potential to accelerate scientific activity across the research pipeline. But even if LLMs perform on par with human experts at selected tasks, their use will bring unintended consequences as they alter the balance of frictions and inducements that steer the allocation of research effort across projects. Here we develop a simple mathematical model to illustrate. In fields where LLMs are useful primarily as tools for discovering promising projects, researchers will become more selective about what they publish; where they facilitate the process of publishing existing data, researchers will become less selective. By allowing scientists to work more quickly, LLMs raise the opportunity cost of researcher time, creating incentives to refine papers less thoroughly before moving on. Enticing as it is to imagine that, by saving us time on mundane tasks, LLMs will provide us with more time to think deeply and develop projects completely, our results temper such hopes.

Artificial intelligences and human scientists exhibit...

We investigate the effectiveness of artificial intelligences (AI)-specifically large language models (LLMs)-relative to human scientists at high-level cognitive tasks in social science such as...

Hypothesis generation and updating in large language models

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly help people solve problems, from debugging code to repairing machinery. This process requires generating plausible hypotheses from partial descriptions,...

Large language models are not the problem

If a Large Language Model (LLM) can replicate your scientific contribution, the problem is not the LLM. What does it say about our field that so much of the anxiety about AI comes down to the fear that a machine could do what we do? Perhaps it says we should be doing something better.

Beyond Model Collapse: Scaling Up with Synthesized Data Requires...

Large Language Models (LLM) are increasingly trained on data generated by other LLM, either because generated text and images become part of the pre-training corpus, or because synthetized data is...

Curated retrieval versus open web search in public AI information...

Public institutions increasingly use large language models (LLMs) to answer citizens' questions, often pairing a curated knowledge base with live web search, yet whether the sources behind these...

Large language models reduce public knowledge sharing on online Q&A platforms

Abstract. Large language models (LLMs) are a potential substitute for human-generated data and knowledge resources. This substitution, however, can present

The Case Against LLMs as Rerankers

Authors: Apoorva Joshi, Zhenmei Shi, Akshay Goindani, Hong LiuResearch Leads: Zhenmei Shi, Akshay Goindani, Hong Liu Large language models are increasingly being used for a broad range of tasks, in…

Scientific production in the era of Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) are rapidly reshaping scientific research. We analyze these changes in multiple, large-scale datasets with 2.1M preprints, 28K peer review reports, and 246M online accesses to scientific documents. We find: 1) scientists adopting LLMs to draft manuscripts demonstrate a large increase in paper production, ranging from 23.7-89.3% depending on scientific field and author background, 2) LLM use has reversed the relationship between writing complexity and paper quality, leading to an influx of manuscripts that are linguistically complex but substantively underwhelming, and 3) LLM adopters access and cite more diverse prior work, including books and younger, less-cited documents. These findings highlight a stunning shift in scientific production that will likely require a change in how journals, funding agencies, and tenure committees evaluate scientific works.

The Paper Factory

How can large language models (LLMs) contribute to social science research, and what parts of research remain stubbornly human? Building on existing LLM tools, we offer a multi-agent workflow capable of producing a full quantitative social science paper from an initial prompt. The workflow relies on researchers codifying their heuristics for doing data analysis, and we suggest some core design principles for researchers interested in building on this scaffolding. Using this case, we also examine what current LLM capabilities reveal about the organization of research. LLM agents can lower the cost of pursuing high-risk ideas, expand robustness and transparency, reduce concerns about the scientific file drawer, and force scholars to articulate the heuristics that create valuable work. But they also pose challenges, both in terms of the quality of papers and in the adequacy of scientific institutions to adapt. Meeting these challenges will require new institutional norms that make use of these tools observable, auditable, and accountable.

Experimental evidence of the effects of large language models versus web search on depth of learning

Abstract. The effects of using large language models (LLMs) versus traditional web search on depth of learning are explored. A theory is proposed that when

Scaling Laws Across Model Architectures: A Comparative Analysis of...

The scaling of large language models (LLMs) is a critical research area for the efficiency and effectiveness of model training and deployment. Our work investigates the transferability and...

Illusions of Understanding from Outsourcing Thinking to LLMs

Some illusions of understanding are an inevitable part of the research process, while others can be avoided or overcome by careful critical thinking and observation. We are facing an increased risk of avoidable illusions as more research activities are delegated to large language models (LMM). LLMs can be useful but they cannot think, and their use can undermine our thinking and understanding. Thinking for ourselves is hard and error prone but worthwhile - and there are no shortcuts to understanding.

Large language model

A large language model (LLM) is a neural network trained on a vast amount of text for natural language processing tasks, especially language generation. LLMs can typically generate, summarize, translate, and analyze text in many contexts, and are a foundational technology behind modern chatbots.[1] Biased or inaccurate training data can make an LLM's output less reliable.[2]