First slowly, and then all at once, dreams of LLMs bringing us to the cusp of AGI have fallen apart.
2025: The year in LLMs
This is the third in my annual series reviewing everything that happened in the LLM space over the past 12 months. For previous years see Stuff we figured out about …
Don’t be fooled by this summer of AI hype
Breathless claims about AGI and new capabilities fall apart pretty quickly under scrutiny.
Economic Policy for AGI
Society has the capacity and tools to shape our economic trajectory in the AGI era. Here is a roadmap for managing the transition.
Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner
Continual learning is a huge bottleneck
Demis Hassabis Predicts AGI Will Have 10x The Impact Of The Industrial Revolution — And It Will Happen In
At the India AI Impact Summit 2026, Demis Hassabis said AGI could have 10 times the impact of the Industrial Revolution within a decade, potentially arriving in the next five years, while urging scientific guardrails and broad global cooperation to ensure it benefits society.
Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?
41% chance. Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027. Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or if after January 1, 2027 we have results from enough LLMs (e.g. the leading models from the major AI labs at the time) to be confident this will not occur. If The Forecasting Research Institute tells us how this market should resolve, then we will go with what they say.
LLMs break the internet. Signing everything fixes it.
The dead internet theory wasn't wrong, just early. Here's what to do next.
Scaling is over, the bubble may be deflating, LLMs still can’t reason, and you can’t trust Sam
New evidence that confirms so much of what I have been saying
How Do We Talk about LLMs?
By Jim Clifford It is never fun to watch friends argue. Generative AI has created multiple fractures across our universities and the community of historians. The stakes are high and we are all deal…
DeepSeek
DeepSeek, unravel the mystery of AGI with curiosity. Answer the essential question with long-termism.
AGI isn’t the ‘Holy Grail’ for women in AI. It’s gender-purpose AI and it’s already here - Fast Company
Women AI Leaders are shaping the future of the technology in ways that are more purpose-driven.
Welcome to the AGI era of AI governance
It's a one-way door and we weren't ready for it.
LLMs and performative productivity
It's worth asking whether LLMs are actually making us more productive at all—and if so, what we might be sacrificing in return.
My self-sovereign / local / private / secure LLM setup, April 2026