what forecasting failure tells us about the future
Europe 2031 — What getting AI wrong means for us
A five-year scenario about AI and Europe's impending slide into irrelevance, with a 2034 epilogue that describes how the collapse of the European model could have been prevented.
Our Uncertain Uncertainties
Even the experts inventing AI don’t know what will happen next.
Who Gets War Right? Michael Kofman Responds
a debate about military forecasting, broken clocks, and magic wands
AIA Forecaster: Technical Report
Forecasting is a universal problem. Any system that makes informed judgments about what may happen in the future relies on at least some degree of forecasting. In agriculture, this takes the form of predicting future crop yields and food system resilience (5; 44; 33). In biotechnology and medicine, clinical trials are carefully designed to help researchers predict the impact of newly developed treatments (37; 7). Elsewhere in biology, AlphaFold can be viewed as a form of forecasting protein folding structure under uncertainty (19). In academia, grant funding is a form of forecasting which scientific discoveries will be made conditional on funding (48). Climate and environmental science models local and long-term weather trends, which are of universal importance (42; 35; 12). In political science, forecasting election outcomes and the impact of policy decisions are an essential component of political calculus (17; 53; 10). Militaries make use of forecasting for threat assessment and conflict predictions (58; 36). Forecasting is the very heartbeat of financial firms, which use it to estimate future economic conditions in an uncertain world (49). Wherever there is uncertainty about the future, there is forecasting.
Asking the wrong questions — Benedict Evans
With fundamental technology change, we don't so much get our predictions wrong as make predictions about the wrong things.
Prophecy: Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI
From an award-winning University of Oxford professor comes a brilliant, urgent new look at prophecies--the predictions that determine our lives, from our personal finances and the quality of our healthcare to the news and social media we consume and the produces foisted upon us
The Future of Everything is Lies, I Guess: Where Do We Go From Here?
This is a long article, so I've broken it up into a series of posts, listed below. You can also read the full work as a PDF or EPUB.
Why We Fear AI: On the Interpretation of Nightmares — Common Notions Press
Industry insiders Hagen Blix and Ingeborg Glimmer dive into the dark, twisted world of AI to demystify the many nightmares we have about it. They combine expertise in cognitive science and machine learning with political and economic analyses to cut through the hype and technobabble to show how fear
Joshua Achiam on Twitter / X
There is a fact about the future that I feel many people are not facing for reasons that are largely psychological: there are going to be rogue AIs that exist in the world, that will replicate in the wild, and that will attempt to acquire resources for themselves. There will be…— Joshua Achiam (@jachiam0) September 1, 2026
THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS
A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future
The Future of Everything is Lies, I Guess
This is a long article, so I've broken it up into a series of posts, listed below. You can also read the full work as a PDF or EPUB.
AI 2040: Plan A
A detailed forecast and recommendation for how the US, China and the rest of the world should navigate superintelligence.
AI 2040: Plan A
A detailed forecast and recommendation for how the US, China and the rest of the world should navigate superintelligence.
"Efforts to predict the future go hand-in-hand with efforts to control it. Rebel against tyrannical predictions. Let's be brave enough to imagine and fight for a better world." 💙
Carissa Véliz
A culture of divination has grown all around us - from machine learning, to prediction markets, and forecasting of all kinds, not to mention psychics and astrology. But have you ever wondered what, exactly, is in a prediction? TED talk: youtube.com/watch?v=OS4wHmKtH-Q #PROPHECY #authors
