a debate about military forecasting, broken clocks, and magic wands
The Expert Trap and the Next War
what forecasting failure tells us about the future
010 - Greg Stoker on Iran, U.S. Imperialism, and Why the Wars Never Stop
Dispersed, Disguised, and Degradable: The Implications of the Fighting in Ukraine for Future U.S.-Involved Conflicts
Wars reveal new information about warfighting and can spur changes in how foreign observers prepare for future conflicts. In this report, the authors make eight novel or notable observations about the Russia-Ukraine war and forecast how these observations might translate to a potential NATO-Russia or U.S.-China war. The authors also identify broader tactical, operational, and strategic implications for U.S. policymakers.
The Machine Already Won. Can Humans band together before it's too late?
The Machine Already Won. Can Humans band together before it's too late?
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth is being an absolute crayon again
Hegseth may be the biggest crayon alive, and somehow America’s nuclear codes are in his hands — apparently, “bro-science” is policy now
How the U.S. Military Learned to Embrace AI Warfare
A review of Katrina Manson, “Project Maven: A Marine Colonel, His Team, and the Dawn of AI Warfare” (Norton, 2026).
A War for Oil: Economist Michael Hudson on U.S. Quest to Control the World's Oil Trade
The Invisible War in Ukraine Being Fought Over Radio Waves (Published 2023)
Using electromagnetic waves to flummox and follow smarter weapons has become a critical part of the cat-and-mouse game between Ukraine and Russia. The United States, China and others have taken note.
Collections: Pre-Modern Armies for Worldbuilders, Part I: Why They Fight
This week I want to try something a little different. Rather than taking apart a particular fantasy military system, I thought I might try to lay out a more general sense of how military systems te…
The Forever War (The Forever War, #1)
The Earth's leaders have drawn a line in the interstell…
Revisiting Iran's Missile and Drone Campaign
An early reflection on my writing and thinking during the war
Asking the wrong questions — Benedict Evans
With fundamental technology change, we don't so much get our predictions wrong as make predictions about the wrong things.
The Future of Everything is Lies, I Guess: Where Do We Go From Here?
This is a long article, so I've broken it up into a series of posts, listed below. You can also read the full work as a PDF or EPUB.