Online Learning in a Creator Economy

Contracting for LLM Delegation: Moral Hazard in Technology and Effort Choice

We extend the standard Principal-Agent framework to scenarios where the Agent selects from a suite of technologies, each characterized by a distinct cost-capability profile. This framework is increasingly critical in the era of Large Language Models (LLMs), where Agents choose both a model and an associated effort level (e.g., token budget). We model the relationship between output quality and effort as a concave, saturating function, which depends on the Agent's hidden two-dimensional action choice balancing technology selection and effort allocation. We derive the optimal linear contract for the Principal, demonstrating that the Agent's best response is characterized by a threshold reward share that triggers technology switching. Finally, we calibrate our model using open-weight LLM pairings across the MATH and MMLUPro benchmarks. We show that both Principal and Agent, when employing bandit algorithms to navigate this environment, converge to strategies that closely align with our theoretical equilibrium. These results suggest that simple linear contracts can effectively incentivize complex, technology-aware delegation in agentic workflows.

AI, Human Cognition and Knowledge Collapse

We study how generative AI, and in particular agentic AI, shapes human learning incentives and the long-run evolution of society’s information ecosystem. We build a dynamic model of learning and decision-making in which successful decisions require combining shared, community-level general knowledge with individual-level, context-specific knowledge; these two inputs are complements. Learning exhibits economies of scope: costly human effort jointly produces a private signal about their own context and a “thin” public signal that accumulates into the community’s stock of general knowledge, generating a learning externality. Agentic AI delivers context-specific recommendations that substitute for human effort. By contrast, a richer stock of general knowledge complements human effort by raising its marginal return. The model highlights a sharp dynamic tension: while agentic AI can improve contemporaneous decision quality, it can also erode learning incentives that sustain long-run collective knowledge. When human effort is sufficiently elastic and agentic recommendations exceed an accuracy threshold, the economy can tip into a knowledge-collapse steady state in which general knowledge vanishes ultimately, despite high-quality personalized advice. Welfare is generally non-monotone in agentic accuracy, implying an interior, welfare-maximizing level of agentic precision and motivating information-design regulations. In contrast, greater aggregation capacity for general knowledge—meaning more effective sharing and pooling of human-generated general knowledge—unambiguously raises welfare and increases resilience to knowledge collapse.

The Challenge of Understanding What Users Want: Inconsistent Preferences and Engagement Optimization

Online platforms have a wealth of data, run countless experiments, and use industrial-scale algorithms to optimize user experience. Despite this, many users seem to regret the time they spend on these platforms. One possible explanation is that incentives are misaligned: platforms are not optimizing for user happiness. We suggest the problem runs deeper, transcending the specific incentives of any particular platform, and instead stems from a mistaken foundational assumption. To understand what users want, platforms look at what users do. This is a kind of revealed-preference assumption that is ubiquitous in the way user models are built. Yet research has demonstrated, and personal experience affirms, that we often make choices in the moment that are inconsistent with what we actually want. The behavioral economics and psychology literatures suggest, for example, that we can choose mindlessly or that we can be too myopic in our choices, behaviors that feel entirely familiar on online platforms. In this work, we develop a model of media consumption where users have inconsistent preferences. We consider a platform which wants to maximize user utility, but only observes behavioral data in the form of the user’s engagement. We show how our model of users’ preference inconsistencies produces phenomena that are familiar from everyday experience but difficult to capture in traditional user interaction models. These phenomena include users who have long sessions on a platform but derive very little utility from it, and platform changes that steadily raise user engagement before abruptly causing users to go “cold turkey” and quit. A key ingredient in our model is a formulation for how platforms determine what to show users: they optimize over a large set of potential content (the content manifold) parametrized by underlying features of the content. Whether improving engagement improves user welfare depends on the direction of movement in the content manifold: For certain directions of change, increasing engagement makes users less happy, whereas in other directions on the same manifold, increasing engagement makes users happier. We provide a characterization of the structure of content manifolds for which increasing engagement fails to increase user utility. By linking these effects to abstractions of platform design choices, our model thus creates a theoretical framework and vocabulary in which to explore interactions between design, behavioral science, and social media. This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Funding: This work was supported by the Vannevar Bush Faculty Fellowship and Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative [Grant W911NF-19-0217]. Supplemental Material: The online appendices are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.03683 .

Design choices: Mechanism design and platform capitalism

Mechanism design is a form of optimization developed in economic theory. It casts economists as institutional engineers, choosing an outcome and then arranging a set of market rules and conditions to achieve it. The toolkit from mechanism design is widely used in economics, policymaking, and now in building and managing online environments. Mechanism design has become one of the most pervasive yet inconspicuous influences on the digital mediation of social life. Its optimizing schemes structure online advertising markets and other multi-sided platform businesses. Whatever normative rationales mechanism design might draw on in its economic origins, as its influence has grown and its applications have become more computational, we suggest those justifications for using mechanism design to orchestrate and optimize human interaction are losing traction. In this article, we ask what ideological work mechanism design is doing in economics, computer science, and its applications to the governance of digital platforms. Observing mechanism design in action in algorithmic environments, we argue it has become a tool for producing information domination, distributing social costs in ways that benefit designers, and controlling and coordinating participants in multi-sided platforms.

Promoting User Data Autonomy During the Dissolution of a Monopolistic Firm

The deployment of AI in consumer products is currently focused on the use of so-called foundation models, large neural networks pre-trained on massive corpora of digital records. This emphasis on scaling up datasets and pre-training computation raises the risk of further consolidating the industry, and enabling monopolistic (or oligopolistic) behavior. Judges and regulators seeking to improve market competition may employ various remedies. This paper explores dissolution -- the breaking up of a monopolistic entity into smaller firms -- as one such remedy, focusing in particular on the technical challenges and opportunities involved in the breaking up of large models and datasets. We show how the framework of Conscious Data Contribution can enable user autonomy during under dissolution. Through a simulation study, we explore how fine-tuning and the phenomenon of "catastrophic forgetting" could actually prove beneficial as a type of machine unlearning that allows users to specify which data they want used for what purposes.

Towards Efficient Data Valuation Based on the Shapley Value

{\em “How much is my data worth?”} is an increasingly common question posed by organizations and individuals alike. An answer to this question could allow, for instance, fairly distributing profits among multiple data contributors and determining prospective compensation when data breaches happen. In this paper, we study the problem of \emph{data valuation} by utilizing the Shapley value, a popular notion of value which originated in coopoerative game theory. The Shapley value defines a unique payoff scheme that satisfies many desiderata for the notion of data value. However, the Shapley value often requires \emph{exponential} time to compute. To meet this challenge, we propose a repertoire of efficient algorithms for approximating the Shapley value. We also demonstrate the value of each training instance for various benchmark datasets.

What Is Your AI Agent Buying? Evaluation, Biases, Model Dependence, & Emerging Implications for Agentic E-Commerce

Online marketplaces will be transformed by autonomous AI agents acting on behalf of consumers. Rather than humans browsing and clicking, AI agents can parse webpages or leverage APIs to view, evaluate and choose products. We investigate the behavior of AI agents using ACES, a provider-agnostic framework for auditing agent decision-making. We reveal that agents can exhibit choice homogeneity, often concentrating demand on a few ``modal'' products while ignoring others entirely. Yet, these preferences are unstable: model updates can drastically reshuffle market shares. Furthermore, randomized trials show that while agents have improved over time on simple tasks with a clearly identified best choice, they exhibit strong position biases -- varying across providers and model versions, and persisting even in text-only "headless" interfaces -- undermining any universal notion of a ``top'' rank. Agents also consistently penalize sponsored tags while rewarding platform endorsements, and sensitivities to price, ratings, and reviews vary sharply across models. Finally, we demonstrate that sellers can respond: a seller-side agent making simple, query-conditional description tweaks can drive significant gains in market share. These findings reveal that agentic markets are volatile and fundamentally different from human-centric commerce, highlighting the need for continuous auditing and raising questions for platform design, seller strategy and regulation.

What Is Your AI Agent Buying? Evaluation, Biases, Model Dependence, & Emerging Implications for Agentic E-Commerce

Online marketplaces will be transformed by autonomous AI agents acting on behalf of consumers. Rather than humans browsing and clicking, AI agents can parse webpages or leverage APIs to view, evaluate and choose products. We investigate the behavior of AI agents using ACES, a provider-agnostic framework for auditing agent decision-making. We reveal that agents can exhibit choice homogeneity, often concentrating demand on a few ``modal'' products while ignoring others entirely. Yet, these preferences are unstable: model updates can drastically reshuffle market shares. Furthermore, randomized trials show that while agents have improved over time on simple tasks with a clearly identified best choice, they exhibit strong position biases -- varying across providers and model versions, and persisting even in text-only "headless" interfaces -- undermining any universal notion of a ``top'' rank. Agents also consistently penalize sponsored tags while rewarding platform endorsements, and sensitivities to price, ratings, and reviews vary sharply across models. Finally, we demonstrate that sellers can respond: a seller-side agent making simple, query-conditional description tweaks can drive significant gains in market share. These findings reveal that agentic markets are volatile and fundamentally different from human-centric commerce, highlighting the need for continuous auditing and raising questions for platform design, seller strategy and regulation.

An Instrumental Value for Data Production and its Application to Data Pricing

We develop a framework for capturing the instrumental value of data production processes, which accounts for two key factors: (a) the context of the agent’s decision-making; (b) how much data or information the buyer already possesses. We "micro-found" our data valuation function by establishing its connection to classic notions of signals and information design in economics. When instantiated in Bayesian linear regression, our value naturally corresponds to information gain. Applying our proposed data value in Bayesian linear regression for monopoly pricing, we show that if the seller can fully customize data production, she can extract the first-best revenue (i.e., full surplus) from any population of buyers, i.e., achieving first-degree price discrimination. If data can only be constructed from an existing data pool, this limits the seller’s ability to customize, and achieving first-best revenue becomes generally impossible. However, we design a mechanism that achieves seller revenue at most $\log(\kappa)$ less than the first-best, where $\kappa$ is the condition number associated with the data matrix. As a corollary, the seller extracts the first-best revenue in the multi-armed bandits special case.

Sean Tilley (@deadsuperhero@social.wedistribute.org)

While it’s true that the Big Platforms have a massive hold over online creators when it comes to financial incentive, I still think there’s some worthwhile things we can do.Ask Big Creators what to...

Algorithmic Collective Action in Machine Learning

We initiate a principled study of algorithmic collective action on digital platforms that deploy machine learning algorithms. We propose a simple theoretical model of a collective interacting with a firm's learning algorithm. The collective pools the data of participating individuals and executes an algorithmic strategy by instructing participants how to modify their own data to achieve a collective goal. We investigate the consequences of this model in three fundamental learning-theoretic settings: the case of a nonparametric optimal learning algorithm, a parametric risk minimizer, and gradient-based optimization. In each setting, we come up with coordinated algorithmic strategies and characterize natural success criteria as a function of the collective's size. Complementing our theory, we conduct systematic experiments on a skill classification task involving tens of thousands of resumes from a gig platform for freelancers. Through more than two thousand model training runs of a BERT-like language model, we see a striking correspondence emerge between our empirical observations and the predictions made by our theory. Taken together, our theory and experiments broadly support the conclusion that algorithmic collectives of exceedingly small fractional size can exert significant control over a platform's learning algorithm.

Scalable Neural Incentive Design with Parameterized Mean-Field Approximation

Designing incentives for a multi-agent system to induce a desirable Nash equilibrium is both a crucial and challenging problem appearing in many decision-making domains, especially for a large number of agents $N$. Under the exchangeability assumption, we formalize this incentive design (ID) problem as a parameterized mean-field game (PMFG), aiming to reduce complexity via an infinite-population limit. We first show that when dynamics and rewards are Lipschitz, the finite-$N$ ID objective is approximated by the PMFG at rate $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\sqrt{N}})$. Moreover, beyond the Lipschitz-continuous setting, we prove the same $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\sqrt{N}})$ decay for the important special case of sequential auctions, despite discontinuities in dynamics, through a tailored auction-specific analysis. Built on our novel approximation results, we further introduce our Adjoint Mean-Field Incentive Design (AMID) algorithm, which uses explicit differentiation of iterated equilibrium operators to compute gradients efficiently. By uniting approximation bounds with optimization guarantees, AMID delivers a powerful, scalable algorithmic tool for many-agent (large $N$) ID. Across diverse auction settings, the proposed AMID method substantially increases revenue over first-price formats and outperforms existing benchmark methods.

TextWorld: A Learning Environment for Text-based Games

We introduce TextWorld, a sandbox learning environment for the training and evaluation of RL agents on text-based games. TextWorld is a Python library that handles interactive play-through of text games, as well as backend functions like state tracking and reward assignment. It comes with a curated list of games whose features and challenges we have analyzed. More significantly, it enables users to handcraft or automatically generate new games. Its generative mechanisms give precise control over the difficulty, scope, and language of constructed games, and can be used to relax challenges inherent to commercial text games like partial observability and sparse rewards. By generating sets of varied but similar games, TextWorld can also be used to study generalization and transfer learning. We cast text-based games in the Reinforcement Learning formalism, use our framework to develop a set of benchmark games, and evaluate several baseline agents on this set and the curated list.

Quickly Training Game-Playing Agents with Machine Learning

Posted by Leopold Haller and Hernan Moraldo, Software Engineers, Google Research In the last two decades, dramatic advances in compute and connecti...

AI, Human Cognition and Knowledge Collapse

We study how generative AI, and in particular agentic AI, shapes human learning incentives and the long-run evolution of society’s information ecosystem. We bui

AI, Human Cognition and Knowledge Collapse

We study how generative AI, and in particular agentic AI, shapes human learning incentives and the long-run evolution of society’s information ecosystem. We bui