If AI restructures the economy, who benefits?
Wealth Capture Policies | Windfall Policy Atlas
What mechanisms can ensure AI-driven productivity gains are captured for the public benefit?
AI Economics for Dummies
“Xavier owns an apartment that he rents out at a loss of $1 billion/month. Seeing this success, he decides to make financial commitments to construct $850 bi...
The Moat or the Commons — Warman Notes
American capital financed AI on the assumption it would be the next great monopoly. Open-weight models are commoditizing the capability that monopoly was supposed to protect. The collision between the two now defines the direction of the U.S. AI industry — and the country.
How Much Redistribution Will AI Require? - Marginal REVOLUTION
How much redistribution will AI require? A common scenario is that AI raises output enormously, but labor’s share of income collapses. GDP per capita goes up but workers get poorer, and making workers whole requires massive redistribution. In my latest paper, I run the numbers and conclude that this is probably incorrect. The idea is […]
Labor Market Adaptation | Windfall Policy Atlas
How can workers, firms, and education systems adapt to an AI-transformed economy?
The Last Gasps of the Rent Seeking Class
Over the past fifty years, the U.S. economy built a giant rent-extraction layer on top of human limitations: things take time, patience runs out, brand familiarity substitutes for diligence, and most people are willing to accept a bad price to avoid more clicks. Trillions of dollars of enterprise value depended on those constraints persisting. – Citrini Research
Is Inequality Inevitable?
Wealth naturally trickles up in free-market economies, model suggests
The Map is Eating the Territory: The Political Economy of AI
It's all driven by who gets what
AI Benefits - But at What Cost?
In 2026 we can all agree that AI and agentic development are certainly exciting topics which many see yielding great productivity gains. But as the investor-subsidized pricing of these services gives way to realistic and profitable business models, where will the real costs land?
Will AI Destroy the Economy? (According to Economists: No.) | AI Reality Check | Cal Newport
The AI Layoff Trap
If AI displaces human workers faster than the economy can reabsorb them, it risks eroding the very consumer demand firms depend on. We show that knowing this is not enough for firms to stop it. In...
What Sort of AI Bubble Are We In?
Think broadband. Or, potentially, the 2008 housing market.
Who Pays for the Commons?
Three and a half years after the emergence of generative AI as a new technology paradigm, there is broad agreement that AI companies have extracted enorm...
Will the AI IPO boom make S.F. richer, or wipe out what’s left of its middle class?
OPINION: Anthropic and OpenAI plan IPOs that make previous tech booms look tiny. If San Francisco wants to benefit, our leaders need far more urgency on housing, the editorial board writes.
The AI bubble isn’t new — Karl Marx explained the mechanisms behind it nearly 150 years ago
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s warning of an AI bubble highlights a deeper economic problem: capitalism is producing more capital than it can profitably invest.
Housing ladder spillovers
Rich newcomers can raise low-end rents, and adding high-end homes can lower them
