41% chance. Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027. Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or if after January 1, 2027 we have results from enough LLMs (e.g. the leading models from the major AI labs at the time) to be confident this will not occur. If The Forecasting Research Institute tells us how this market should resolve, then we will go with what they say.
2025: The year in LLMs
This is the third in my annual series reviewing everything that happened in the LLM space over the past 12 months. For previous years see Stuff we figured out about …
AI models have likely reached parity with superforecasters on ForecastBench
New results from the ForecastBench leaderboard suggest the gap between frontier AI and elite human forecasters is closing.
Dan Shipper 📧 on Twitter / X
this is true and is a big reason why you don’t need to be a highly technical researcher to use LLMs in surprising and novel ways https://t.co/TuxNzXzToU— Dan Shipper 📧 (@danshipper) July 27, 2025
My 2026 Open Social Web Predictions - Tim Chambers
Predictions for 2026 include growth forecasts for various social media platforms, advancements in federated technologies, and anticipated shifts in how …
Economic futures for LLM inference
Inference providers will look for other lines of business.
2025.21: The Upheaval Coming for the Internet Economy
The best Stratechery content from the week of May 19, 2025, including AI and the future of the web, slam dunks and moonshots at Google, and OpenAI entering the hardware business.
State of AI 2025: 100T Token LLM Usage Study | OpenRouter
Read OpenRouter's 2025 State of AI report — an empirical 100 trillion token study of real LLM usage, model trends, and developer insights.
Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet
We, Gary Marcus, author, scientist, and noted skeptic of generative AI, and Miles Brundage, an independent AI policy researcher who recently left OpenAI and is bullish on AI progress, have agreed to the following bet, at 10:1 odds, with criteria drawn from two earlier Substack essays by Gary that proposed criteria for
My self-sovereign / local / private / secure LLM setup, April 2026
2026 in LLMs (so far)
On Friday I gave the closing keynote at the WeAreDevelopers World Congress North America in San Jose. I tied together the key trends from the past year into a chronological …
Forecasting Research Institute on Twitter / X
Introducing the Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIRO): a dashboard of catastrophic risk forecasts from an ensemble of frontier AI models, updated weekly.Current ensemble forecasts of an AI-related catastrophe that kills at least 10% of the global population:• By 2030: 0.47%• By… pic.twitter.com/vc7F00L0Oa— Forecasting Research Institute (@Research_FRI) September 11, 2026
