His people don’t know what they’re doing or what they want
The bazooka diplomacy of Trump’s tariffs
President Trump’s recent pronouncements on tariffs have received considerable attention from analysts, policymakers, and commentators. This column takes a step back and considers some of the broader arguments for raising tariffs – revenue, restriction, and reciprocity – and the potential repercussions. Even if Trump does not proceed with (all of) the announced tariffs, the increased uncertainty is likely to put off firms from trading with or from the US, lowering US exports and imports beyond the imposition of higher tariffs. In the longer term, we can expect a gradual decoupling of trade between the US and other countries.
Trump’s tariffs: Disregarding lessons from history and scenarios and probable outcomes
History is full of evidence that tariffs harm economic performance. This column assesses the two waves of globalisation in modern history and how they were interrupted by barriers to trade. The first wave started in the mid-19th century and lasted until WWI, while the second wave started after WWII and lasted until the Global Crisis of 2008-09. The most likely scenario going forward will feature tariffs around 12-14% on average, a mild recession, and a small hit to US longer-run potential. However, achieving diplomatic normalcy may take years of good US behaviour, and it is unlikely during the Trump administration.
annotations: Pourquoi Trump va perdre sa guerre commerciale
traduction française du billet de blog "Why Trump will lose his trade war" de Paul Krugman
U.S. and Canada fall deeper into a trade war with new tariffs as talks collapse and blame is spread
President Donald Trump’s import taxes will hit about 5% of what Canada ships to the United States every year, including products ranging from hockey sticks to tongue depressors.
Ce que Trump peut apprendre de la Grande-Bretagne victorienne à propos du commerce international
traduction française du billet de blog "What the Edwardians could teach Trump about trade" de Paul Krugman
The Weaponized World Economy
When Washington announced a “framework deal” with China in June, it marked a silent shifting of gears in the global political economy. This was not the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s imagined epoch of “liberation” under unilateral American greatness or a return to the Biden administration’s dream of managed great-power rivalry. Instead, it was the true opening of the age of weaponized interdependence, in which the United States is discovering what it is like to have others do unto it as it has eagerly done unto others.
Why higher tariffs won’t shrink the trade deficit
In President Donald Trump’s executive order calling for reciprocal tariffs, he said that their main purpose is to reduce the US trade deficit. Economists have long argued that tariffs have no effect on trade balances.
Trump scoffs at Iran’s demand for war reparations and other Mideast developments
U.S. President Donald Trump is scoffing at Iran's demands that the U.S. pay for devastation caused by five months of war.
Trump questioned perception of Portland before approving military plan: 'Am I watching things on television that are different from what's happening?'
President Trump had said he will send troops to Portland to protect U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement facilities, which he said were "under attack."
There's one massive problem with Trump's Ukraine diesel price theory
U.S. President Donald Trump has a very simple solution to the very real problem of rising diesel prices. "(President Volodymyr) Zelensky has to do one thing — he has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” he told reporters on Sept. 13. "Let him go after targets but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage of diesel fuel… that’s hurting the world." Trump's implication was clear — halting Ukraine's long-running, long-range drone strike campaign against Russian oil refineries would
Ce sont les consommateurs américains, non les étrangers, qui payent les droits de douane de Trump
traduction française du billet de blog "How goes the trade war? Consumers, not foreigners, are paying the Trump tariffs" de Paul Krugman
Exclusive: 'It felt like a trap.' How Ukraine was blindsided by Trump's Putin pivot
When U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner told Ukraine's delegation on Oct. 9 that President Donald Trump was preparing to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports, the Ukrainians struggled to believe what they were hearing. The delegation had traveled to the United States to discuss a possible energy ceasefire with Russia. Instead, Kyiv's negotiators found themselves blindsided by a decision they feared would hand Moscow fresh revenue to finance its war against Ukraine while undermining
Why the man behind 'The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble' thinks Wall Street's hottest trade will go bust
The Expert Trap and the Next War
what forecasting failure tells us about the future
Trump offers Iran economic relief for concrete nuclear concessions
The offer provides a glimmer of hope for a diplomatic resolution to the war.
Trump peut-il réduire le déficit commercial américain ?
Traduction du billet de blog "Can Trump reduce the trade deficit?" de Paul Krugman
