The 2025 Australian federal election saw an unexpected landslide victory for the Labor Party, the Liberal Party’s worst ever result and the continued rise of the non-major-party vote. In this book, Australia’s leading election analysts explore what contributed to this outcome, including the effectiveness of party and third-party campaigns, the changing demography of the
Guardian Essential poll: Labor’s housing and tax changes fail to win over voters as support for One Nation swells
Just 25% of Australians polled back the budget while the majority believe the government has fallen short of expectations over the past year
Victorian election polls 2026 — average and ledger — Australian Election Tracker
Victorian state election 2026 polls: sourced statewide primary votes and a transparent weighted average with uncertainty bands. Latest tracker average (as of 2026-10-10): Labor 24.5%, Coalition 29.1%, One Nation 22.6%, Greens 14.9%, Others 8.9%. Not a forecast.
Unpopular leaders punished at the polls in 2022 election
Scott Morrison and Barnaby Joyce were the most unpopular leaders of any party since 1987, new analysis of the 2022 federal election from The Australian National University (ANU) shows. The findings come from the joint ANUpoll/Comparative Study of Electoral Systems survey of more than 3,500 voters, which examined Australians' political attitudes before and after the 21 May vote. Study co-author Professor Ian McAllister said the findings show leaders were more important than in previous elections.
Victorian State Election November 28th 2026 - Vote Climate One
The disturbing rise of One Nation has radically changed the Australian political landscape. Vote Climate One is now forced to overhaul our strategic preferencing advice, not just federally, but for this state election as well. We now have the threat of the Liberal Party preferencing One Nation and a potential coalition between One Nation and …
Leadership Change, Policy Issues and Voter Defection in the 2010 Australian Election
Leadership change formed the backdrop to the 2010 Australian federal election, with the replacement of Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister by Julia Gillard, the country's first female Prime Minister. Thi...
The unmaking of the Australian party system • Frank Bongiorno
How should we deal with a fragmented political landscape? First we need to understand how we got here
Victorian Election Polls 2026: The Third Corner
Updated 16 October 2026: the Coalition leads 53.9–46.1 across the eleven Victorian polls since the change of Premier, with One Nation on 22.7 per cent.
Voter Studies | Australian Election Study
The AES routinely collects data among a nationally representative sample of voters and among major party candidates standing for election (the latter is the Australian Candidate Study – ACS). Both the voter and candidate instruments combine a common set of questions. More details on the general methodology used are detailed below, and specific information about the methods used for a particular year is available from the information page for that wave.
Victorian polls have Coalition leading Labor by narrow to large margins
About three months out from the Victorian state election, the five polls released since the state got a new premier all show the Coalition in front.
Victoria is about to have the most unpredictable election in living memory
Much has been written about the rise of Pauline Hanson's One Nation in the past 12 months. The Victorian election will give us our best look yet at the decline of the two-party system.
ALP continues to hold an election winning lead; One Nation is highest in Western Australia and Queensland, Labor is strongest in New South Wales and South Australia - Roy Morgan Research
Over the past fortnight the ALP maintains an election winning lead with 26% (unchanged from two weeks ago) of the primary vote, ahead of One Nation on 24% (down 1.5%). The L-NP Coalition primary is 21.5% (down 1%): (18.5% Liberal, 3% Nationals); Greens 15% (unchanged) and Independent/Others 13.5% (up 2.5%).
How the swing was distributed, and how the pendulum performed
Now that we have a complete two-party-preferred vote for all of Australia, we can look at the distribution of seat margins and swings across the country. For this post, I have produced a number of …
Victorian state election 2026 candidates — sourced tracker — Australian Election Tracker
Victorian election 2026 candidate tracker: independently sourced announced, endorsed and nominated candidacies across 88 Assembly districts and 8 Council regions. Open JSON/CSV — not the VEC, not a forecast.
'I am shocked': Unpacking One Nation's spectacular rise in the polls
Pauline Hanson's One Nation has seen the fastest polling rise in modern Australian politics. What is going on?
Victorian State Voting Intention: L-NP (26%) and ALP (26%) level on primary and ahead of One Nation (23.5%); however, L-NP narrowly leads ALP on two-party preferred basis (51% cf. 49%) - Roy Morgan Research
In early August the L-NP Coalition 26% (up 2% since April) and ALP 26% (up 0.5%) are level on primary vote ahead of One Nation 23.5% (down 1%) and 24.5% (down 1.5%) support Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 12.5% (down 1%), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8% (down 0.5%) according to a special SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.
