AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027. Look. The models, they just
A Definition of AGI
The lack of a concrete definition for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) obscures the gap between today's specialized AI and human-level cognition. This paper introduces a quantifiable framework to address this, defining AGI as matching the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult. To operationalize this, we ground our methodology in Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory, the most empirically validated model of human cognition. The framework dissects general intelligence into ten core cognitive domains-including reasoning, memory, and perception-and adapts established human psychometric batteries to evaluate AI systems. Application of this framework reveals a highly "jagged" cognitive profile in contemporary models. While proficient in knowledge-intensive domains, current AI systems have critical deficits in foundational cognitive machinery, particularly long-term memory storage. The resulting AGI scores (e.g., GPT-4 at 27%, GPT-5 at 57%) concretely quantify both rapid progress and the substantial gap remaining before AGI.
Here’s How Gen Z and Gen Alpha Are Actually Using ChatGPT at School
Use of AI for schoolwork is on the rise.
What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2026?
Children of the Magenta Line
Why minimally guided AI does not work. Chatbots, novices, the automation of learning and the case for Alpha School
Does AI stop children from learning?
New data show the peril and promise of the technology
II. From AGI to Superintelligence: the Intelligence Explosion - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
AI progress won’t stop at human-level. Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into ≤1 year. We would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman AI systems. The power—and the peril—of superintelligence would be dramatic. Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that
Generative AI without guardrails can harm learning: Evidence from high school mathematics
Generative AI is poised to revolutionize how humans work, and has already demonstrated promise in significantly improving human productivity. A key question is how generative AI affects learning—namely, how humans acquire new skills as they perform tasks. Learning is critical to long-term productivity, especially since generative AI is fallible and users must check its outputs. We study this question via a field experiment where we provide nearly a thousand high school math students with access to generative AI tutors. To understand the differential impact of tool design on learning, we deploy two generative AI tutors: one that mimics a standard ChatGPT interface (“GPT Base”) and one with prompts designed to safeguard learning (“GPT Tutor”). Consistent with prior work, our results show that having GPT-4 access while solving problems significantly improves performance (48% improvement in grades for GPT Base and 127% for GPT Tutor). However, we additionally find that when access is subsequently taken away, students actually perform worse than those who never had access (17% reduction in grades for GPT Base)—i.e., unfettered access to GPT-4 can harm educational outcomes. These negative learning effects are largely mitigated by the safeguards in GPT Tutor. Without guardrails, students attempt to use GPT-4 as a “crutch” during practice problem sessions, and subsequently perform worse on their own. Thus, decision-makers must be cautious about design choices underlying generative AI deployments to preserve skill learning and long-term productivity.
Kids who use ChatGPT as a study assistant do worse on tests
Researchers compare math progress of almost 1,000 high school students
Mayor Mamdani and Chancellor Samuels Put Students First with Nation’s Broadest Generative AI Moratorium in Schools
NEW YORK – Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani and Schools Chancellor Kamar H. Samuels today announced a moratorium on student-facing generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) use in schools, alongside a new screen time policy, a decision that will impact nearly 600,000 public school students, or two-thirds of the system’s total enrollment. The policy establishes a one-year moratorium, effective in the 2026-2027 school year, on student-facing generative AI for children in 2-K through 8th grade. It also introduces twice-yearly AI critical thinking modules for high schoolers, limited AI pilots for a small number of high school classrooms and age-appropriate screen time restrictions.
How did Leopold do? Evaluating Situational Awareness's predictions
In June 2024, Leopold Aschenbrenner published Situational Awareness, a 165-page essay predicting AGI by 2027, trillion-dollar compute clusters, an in…
Timeback - AI-Powered Education | 2 Hours Daily Academic Mastery
Revolutionary AI-powered EducationOS helping children master academics in just 2 hours per day. Personalized learning with 10x faster gains. Join the waitlist for 2026 launch.
Debates on the nature of artificial general intelligence
The term “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) has become ubiquitous in current discourse around AI. OpenAI states that its mission is “to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity.” DeepMind’s company vision statement notes that “artificial general intelligence…has the potential to drive one of the greatest transformations in history.” AGI is mentioned prominently in the UK government’s National AI Strategy and in US government AI documents . Microsoft researchers recently claimed evidence of “sparks of AGI” in the large language model GPT-4, and current and former Google executives proclaimed that “AGI is already here.” The question of whether GPT-4 is an “AGI algorithm” is at the center of a lawsuit filed by Elon Musk against OpenAI.
‘I hate what AI is doing to the minds and happiness of the young’: Katherine Rundell on the view from the classroom
Education is at a crossroads, argues the author and academic. Should we embrace new technology in the name of efficiency, or is it time to fight back?
Luiza Jarovsky, PhD on Twitter / X
🚨 University professors have been saying AI is completely destroying learning and that we'll soon have an AI-powered, semi-illiterate workforce. Here's a glimpse into the educational apocalypse:"Sarah, a freshman at Wilfrid Laurier University in Ontario, said she first used… pic.twitter.com/Rq6zUi5mRp— Luiza Jarovsky, PhD (@LuizaJarovsky) May 6, 2026
