I saw in a recent issue of the Times Literary Supplement that you have been critical of the “chambermaid” study which purported to show that people were losing weight without changing their diet or exercise. I agree that this study did not show what it claimed.
A Statistical Interrogation of “The Case for Causality, Part 1” by Rausch and Haidt – Matthew B. Jané
I don’t know anything about the literature on social media and mental health so my focus on this post is to interrogate the statistical approach taken by the article written by Zach Rausch and Jonathon Haidt (link here) and to some extent the original meta-analysis by Ferguson.
The C-Word: Scientific Euphemisms Do Not Improve Causal Inference From Observational Data
Causal inference is a core task of science. However, authors and editors often refrain from explicitly acknowledging the causal goal of research projects; they refer to causal effect estimates as associational estimates. This commentary argues that using the term “causal” is necessary to improve the quality of observational research. Specifically, being explicit about the causal objective of a study reduces ambiguity in the scientific question, errors in the data analysis, and excesses in the interpretation of the results.
Causality
Written by one of the preeminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Judea Pearl presents and unifies the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual, and structural approaches to causation and devises simple mathematical tools for studying the relationships between causal connections and statistical associations. Cited in more than 2,100 scientific publications, it continues to liberate scientists from the traditional molds of statistical thinking. In this revised edition, Judea Pearl elucidates thorny issues, answers readers' questions, and offers a panoramic view of recent advances in this field of research. Causality will be of interest to students and professionals in a wide variety of fields. Dr Judea Pearl has received the 2011 Rumelhart Prize for his leading research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and systems from The Cognitive Science Society.
Least resistance weight loss
The weight-loss industry preys on scientific naivete, often conflating good nutrition with the caloric deficit necessary to lose weight.
Everything You Know About Obesity Is Wrong
For decades, the medical community has ignored mountains of evidence to wage a cruel and futile war on fat people, poisoning public perception and ruining millions of lives. It's time for a new paradigm.
Nikhil Krishnan on Twitter / X
yeah there used to be a company called Eureka that powered these types of observational, more lifestyle style studies (here's an example looking at coffee's effect on different biomarkers/conditions)https://t.co/urQRvTVTb7I think it can work if you have enough people in…— Nikhil Krishnan (@nikillinit) September 14, 2025
Estimating Causal Effects of Treatments in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies
Presents a discussion of matching, randomization, random sampling, and other methods of controlling extraneous variation. The objective was to specify the benefits of randomization in estimating causal effects of treatments. It is concluded that randomization should be employed whenever possible but that the use of carefully controlled nonrandomized data to estimate causal effects is a reasonable and necessary procedure in many cases.
Claims about scientific rigour require rigour
Nature Human Behaviour - Claims about scientific rigour require rigour
Death of the calorie
For more than a century we’ve counted on calories to tell us what will make us fat. Peter Wilson says it’s time to bury the world’s most misleading measure
How Are SNAP Benefits Spent? Evidence from a Retail Panel
We use a novel retail panel with detailed transaction records to study the effect of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on house-hold spending. We use administrative data to motivate three approaches to causal inference. The marginal propensity to consume SNAP-eligible food (MPCF) out of SNAP benefits is 0.5 to 0.6. The MPCF out of cash is much smaller. These patterns obtain even for households for whom SNAP benefits are economically equivalent to cash because their benefits are below their food spending. Using a semiparametric framework, we reject the hypothesis that households respect the fungibility of money. A model with mental accounting can match the facts.
Beacon Press: What We Don't Talk About When We Talk About Fat
From the creator of Your Fat Friend and co-host of the Maintenance Phase podcast, an explosive indictment of the systemic and cultural bias facing plus-size people.
White House Health Report Included Fake Citations (Published 2025)
A report on children’s health released by the Make America Healthy Again Commission referred to scientific papers that did not exist.
How Field Experiments in Economics Can Complement Psychological Research on Judgment Biases
This review summarizes results of field experiments examining individual behaviors across several market settings—from open-air markets to rideshare markets to tax-compliance markets—where people sort themselves into market roles wherein they make consequential decisions. Using three distinct examples from my own research on the endowment effect, left-digit bias, and omission bias, I showcase how field experiments can help researchers understand mediators, heterogeneity, and causal moderation involved in judgment biases in the field. In this manner, the review highlights that economic field experiments can serve an invaluable intellectual role alongside traditional laboratory research.
Feed Logic and the Failure to Thrive
Two disquieting works of fiction I encountered this spring feature the same menacing figure: a young girl that refuses to eat. In Ben Lerner’s novel Transcription (2026), doctors inform a couple that their waifish, picky-eating daughter is, in fact, “failing to thrive,” suffering from ARFID (avoidant/restrictive food
Dylan Wiliam on Twitter / X
The best journal article titles tell you what the study actually found, rather than being a teaser to make you read the paper. Here's a good example: "Spaced mathematics practice improves test scores and reduces overconfidence" https://t.co/iXxdkAgYPM ($)— Dylan Wiliam (@dylanwiliam) December 31, 2024
The Website Obesity Crisis
This is the text version of a talk I gave on October 29, 2015, at the Web Directions conference in Sydney. [53 minute video].