A new take on Trump’s tariffs, including using a disruption lens to understand the U.S.’s manufacturing problem, and why a better plan would leverage demand, not kill it.
The bazooka diplomacy of Trump’s tariffs
President Trump’s recent pronouncements on tariffs have received considerable attention from analysts, policymakers, and commentators. This column takes a step back and considers some of the broader arguments for raising tariffs – revenue, restriction, and reciprocity – and the potential repercussions. Even if Trump does not proceed with (all of) the announced tariffs, the increased uncertainty is likely to put off firms from trading with or from the US, lowering US exports and imports beyond the imposition of higher tariffs. In the longer term, we can expect a gradual decoupling of trade between the US and other countries.
Trump’s tariffs: Disregarding lessons from history and scenarios and probable outcomes
History is full of evidence that tariffs harm economic performance. This column assesses the two waves of globalisation in modern history and how they were interrupted by barriers to trade. The first wave started in the mid-19th century and lasted until WWI, while the second wave started after WWII and lasted until the Global Crisis of 2008-09. The most likely scenario going forward will feature tariffs around 12-14% on average, a mild recession, and a small hit to US longer-run potential. However, achieving diplomatic normalcy may take years of good US behaviour, and it is unlikely during the Trump administration.
Thoughts on the Trump Tariffs - Conversable Economist
It will take some time for the effects of President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement of higher US tariffs to become apparent. Here, I'll just offer some notes and quick reactions. 1) The announced tariffs represent a very large increase. Here's a figure showing historical US tariff rates. You will notice that the average rates have
Disruption is not a strategy
I was at a research lab to talk about commercialization. The presenter put up a slide of some exciting new technologies. The slide’s tagline said these technologies would “disrupt the b…
Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market • The Aspen Institute Economic Strategy Group
DAVID DEMING, CHRISTOPHER ONG, LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS This paper explores past episodes of technological disruption in the US labor market, with the goal of learning lessons about the likely future impact of artificial intelligence (AI). The authors measure changes in the structure of the US labor market going back over a century in two ways. ...
The Weaponized World Economy
When Washington announced a “framework deal” with China in June, it marked a silent shifting of gears in the global political economy. This was not the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s imagined epoch of “liberation” under unilateral American greatness or a return to the Biden administration’s dream of managed great-power rivalry. Instead, it was the true opening of the age of weaponized interdependence, in which the United States is discovering what it is like to have others do unto it as it has eagerly done unto others.
Opinion | Trump Can Keep America’s AI Advantage
China is trying to catch up. The U.S. needs proactive development efforts and strong export controls.
U.S. and Canada fall deeper into a trade war with new tariffs as talks collapse and blame is spread
President Donald Trump’s import taxes will hit about 5% of what Canada ships to the United States every year, including products ranging from hockey sticks to tongue depressors.
Trump, l'ALENA et le Mexique, ou comment endommager l'industrie américaine
traduction française du billet de blog "How to damage US manufacturing" de Paul Krugman
.png)
All the Ways Europe Is Ditching American Technology
A WIRED timeline shows how dozens of governments, companies, and other organizations across Europe are moving, or planning to shift, away from US Big Tech.
Silicon Valley, disruption, and the end of uncertainty
This paper reflects on the relationship between high-tech disruption narratives and uncertainty. My main argument is that an economic sociology of the future is incomplete without addressing the ‘d...
Droits de douane : comment le projet radical de Trump pourrait ruiner l’économie américaine
traduction française du billet de blog "How Trump’s radical tariff plan could wreck our economy" de Paul Krugman
More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs
The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump
Move fast and break kings
There is another policy response to tariffs, one that will substantially lower prices for Canadians, while incubating profitable, export-oriented Canadian tech firms, whose products can be sold by community-based small and medium enterprises, to the benefit of the Canadian news and culture industry, Canadian software firms, and Canadian consumers.
Trump’s travel ban casts shadow over the upcoming Fifa Club World Cup and other US-hosted sporting events
Further restrictions may add to the fears many potential visitors to the US are feeling of being stopped at the border.
Trump’s travel ban casts shadow over the upcoming Fifa Club World Cup and other US-hosted sporting events
Further restrictions may add to the fears many potential visitors to the US are feeling of being stopped at the border.