The all in bet maximizes the arithmetic growth rate, but it certainly doesn’t maximize the geometric growth rate. A Kelly bet does. So which growth rate is “long term”. From a single players perspective, it's clearly the geometric return. https://t.co/X4jmbHBzXg

Kelly criterion

In probability theory, the Kelly criterion is a formula for risk allocation with the sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate. John Larry Kelly Jr., a researcher at Bell Labs, described the criterion in 1956.

If you're so smart, how come you're not SBF? The Kelly criterion and choice of expectations and utility function when bet sizing

There has been a very interesting discussion on twitter, relating to some stuff said by Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), who at the time of writing ...

Infinity Revenue, Infinity Possibilities

The Deceptively Cute Game Growing Faster Than Any Company in History

Why Paul Romer won the Nobel Prize in economics - Marginal REVOLUTION

It is hard to do better than Alex’s video on Romer, pretty much definitive and Romer liked it too.  Most importantly, Romer won the Prize for seeing how the non-rival nature of ideas can boost ongoing and indeed “endogenous” economic growth.  Romer also showed mathematically that this process of growth is bounded, namely that it […]

‘On the Edge’ Puts Its Bets in the Wrong Places

Nate Silver offers a disjointed paean to gambling and venture capitalists.

US senators urge crackdown on wildfire betting amid warnings of arson risk

Experts say growing trend on sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi could motivate people to start fires to win money

Perpetual futures, explained

Capital efficiency for pros, leverage for bettors, rich yields for market makers, and a dangerous failure mode.

The Math of Idle Games, Part II

Originally published October 28, 2016 In Part I [https://www.sirpinski.com/the-math-of-idle-games-part-i/] of this three-part series, we looked at some of the standard math behind rapid-growth idle games, primarily at the relationships between exponential and polynomial growth and some methods of

America's Growth Ponzi Scheme | Strong Towns

The American pattern of development creates the illusion of wealth. Today we are in the process of seeing that illusion destroyed…and with it the prosperity we have come to take for granted.

Predicting outcomes for games of skill by redefining what it means to win

The Elo rating system is a highly successful ranking algorithm for games of skill where, by construction, one team wins and the other loses. A primary limitation of the original Elo algorithm is its inability to predict information beyond a match's win-loss probability. Specifically, the victor is awarded the same point bounty if he beats a team by 1 point or 10 points; only the rating difference between the team and its opponent affects the match bounty. In this work, we explain that Elo ratings and predictions can be naturally extended to include margin-of-victory information by simply redefining "what it means to win." We create ratings for each value of the margin-of-victory and use these ratings to predict the full distribution of point spread outcomes for matches which have not yet been played.

Growth Equity Primer | Fund Investment Strategy

Growth Equity is an investment strategy oriented around acquiring minority stakes in late-stage, high-growth companies with expansion upside.

How Everything Became Gambling

It’s not just DraftKings and Polymarket — the logic of gambling undergirds everything coming out of Silicon Valley.

BET’s Video-First Overhaul Wipes Years of Black Journalism from Public View | EURweb | Black News, Culture, Entertainment & More

BET’s video-first overhaul removes years of written journalism from public view, raising concerns about preserving Black media history.