Interactive MRP estimates of American public opinion for every state and congressional district, from Wave's MOSAIC model.
FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages
A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.
FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages
A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.
Who are the Voters Swinging to One Nation? - DemosAU
DemosAU's Federal MRP Model, released earlier this week, projects One Nation would win 12 seats (based on the model's central forecast), if the results of our
Opinion | This Is What Will Ruin Public Opinion Polling for Good
Instead of navigating the obstacles to conduct polls with human respondents, pollsters are running A.I. simulations instead. Why?
Midterm Elections in Maine, October 2026
The Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) is a survey research center. MIPO is home to the Marist Poll and conducts polls on politics, the economy, sports, technology and more at the local, state, and national level.
Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP)
Provides comprehensive information on the dynamics of income, employment, household composition, and government program participation.
Midterm Elections in Ohio, September 2026
The Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) is a survey research center. MIPO is home to the Marist Poll and conducts polls on politics, the economy, sports, technology and more at the local, state, and national level.
How Media – Namely News, Ads and Social Posts – Can Shape an Election
How Media – Namely News, Ads and Social Posts – Can Shape an Election
Voter Studies | Australian Election Study
The AES routinely collects data among a nationally representative sample of voters and among major party candidates standing for election (the latter is the Australian Candidate Study – ACS). Both the voter and candidate instruments combine a common set of questions. More details on the general methodology used are detailed below, and specific information about the methods used for a particular year is available from the information page for that wave.
An Assessment of the Causes of the Errors in the 2015 UK Gseneral Election Opinion Polls
Summary The opinion polls that were undertaken before the 2015 UK general election underestimated the Conservative lead over Labour by an average of 7 percentage points. This collective failure led politicians and commentators to question the validity and utility of political polling and raised concerns regarding a broader public loss of confidence in survey research. We assess the likely causes of the 2015 polling errors. We begin by setting out a formal account of the statistical methodology and assumptions that are required for valid estimation of party vote shares by using quota sampling. We then describe the current approach of polling organizations for estimating sampling variability and suggest a new method based on bootstrap resampling. Next, we use poll microdata to assess the plausibility of different explanations of the polling errors. Our conclusion is that the primary cause of the polling errors in 2015 was unrepresentative sampling.
Midterm Elections in Michigan, September 2026
The Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) is a survey research center. MIPO is home to the Marist Poll and conducts polls on politics, the economy, sports, technology and more at the local, state, and national level.
Victorian election polls 2026 — average and ledger — Australian Election Tracker
Victorian state election 2026 polls: sourced statewide primary votes and a transparent weighted average with uncertainty bands. Latest tracker average (as of 2026-10-10): Labor 24.5%, Coalition 29.1%, One Nation 22.6%, Greens 14.9%, Others 8.9%. Not a forecast.
Statistics on Preference Flows between the Coalition and One Nation
This post is additional information on preference flows related to a post I published earlier today, “Liberal, National and One Nation – Friends, Enemies or Frenemies?” With One Nation&…
Government Ratings - Nira Data
Track global public opinion, political sentiment, and trust in government with insights from the 2025 Global Political Opinion Report.
Algorithms may be making political polarization worse than we think
Marc Torrens and Carlos Carrasco-Farré analyze how algorithms influence opinions and heighten our emotional responses.
Simulating Aggregate Electoral Opinion Trajectories with LLM Personas and Media Exposure
LLM-based election simulation has largely been evaluated against a single final outcome, in many cases neglecting how much it can recover the trajectory shaped by media exposure and shifting candidate support. We propose evaluating election simulations in terms of trajectory fidelity: whether persona-conditioned LLM agents can update their beliefs in response to media to reproduce the temporal movement of public opinion, both in aggregate and across demographic subgroups. We design a framework in which each LLM agent carries its belief across time and updates it as new campaign information arrives. We further investigate how performance can vary across simulation design choices such as media exposure model, election context, and survey questionnaire. In a study on the 2026 Seoul mayoral and local elections, we validate simulated trajectories against weekly public-opinion polls and find that simulations that carry prior beliefs across time—rather than simulating each poll date independently—substantially improves alignment with observed polling movement, while the way media exposure is personalized leaves aggregate movement largely intact but reshapes subgroup-level dynamics. We propose a framework for validating simulated opinion trajectories against real-world traces, and discuss the simulation design choices that can influence the performance.