Labor Market Adaptation | Windfall Policy Atlas

Windfall Policy Atlas | Windfall Trust

An overview of policy proposals to respond to the economic disruption from transformative AI.

Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market • The Aspen Institute Economic Strategy Group

DAVID DEMING, CHRISTOPHER ONG, LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS This paper explores past episodes of technological disruption in the US labor market, with the goal of learning lessons about the likely future impact of artificial intelligence (AI). The authors measure changes in the structure of the US labor market going back over a century in two ways.&nbsp...

Regulation & Market Design | Windfall Policy Atlas

What rules and institutional structures will shape how AI-driven economic value is created and distributed?

Wealth Capture Policies | Windfall Policy Atlas

What mechanisms can ensure AI-driven productivity gains are captured for the public benefit?

The real AI economy is being built by ordinary people

Far from Silicon Valley pitch decks, workers across Asia and Africa are bypassing tech industry hype to quietly rewire their daily jobs — one prompt, workflow, and local problem at a time.

OpenAI Calls for New Industrial Policy as AI Reshapes Economy and Governance

OpenAI’s policy paper argues that governments must adopt a new industrial policy to manage AI’s economic disruption.

How employment is changing at Anthropic

How has AI restructured work and employment at Anthropic? As a company at the frontier of AI adoption, Anthropic could be a leading indicator of how AI will shift work organization, hiring, and labor demand across the economy.

AI Adoption and Inequality

There are competing narratives about artificial intelligence’s impact on inequality. Some argue AI will exacerbate economic disparities, while others suggest it could reduce inequality by primarily disrupting high-income jobs. Using household microdata and a calibrated task-based model, we show these narratives reflect different channels through which AI affects the economy. Unlike previous waves of automation that increased both wage and wealth inequality, AI could reduce wage inequality through the displacement of high-income workers. However, two factors may counter this effect: these workers’ tasks appear highly complementary with AI, potentially increasing their productivity, and they are better positioned to benefit from higher capital returns. When firms can choose how much AI to adopt, the wealth inequality effect is particularly pronounced, as the potential cost savings from automating high-wage tasks drive significantly higher adoption rates. Models that ignore this adoption decision risk understating the trade-off policymakers face between inequality and efficiency.

Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure

We introduce "observed exposure," combining LLM capability with real Claude usage data, and share early evidence on employment effects.

AI Economy Institute - Microsoft Research

The AI Economy Institute (AIEI) is Microsoft’s flagship think tank dedicated to shaping an inclusive, trustworthy AI economy. We building a network of scholars and convening that network with our subject matter experts to explore how artificial intelligence is transforming work, education, and productivity – and making this knowledge base available to policy-makers, educators, and […]

Why I'm Worried About Job Loss + Thoughts on Comparative Advantage — LessWrong

David Oks published a well-written essay yesterday arguing that the current panic about AI job displacement is overblown. I agree with a few of his p…

March 2026 Global Dialogues Survey | Windfall Trust

Here’s what the world had to say about the AI economy

The AI Layoff Trap

If AI displaces human workers faster than the economy can reabsorb them, it risks eroding the very consumer demand firms depend on. We show that knowing this is not enough for firms to stop it. In...

Public & Social Investments | Windfall Policy Atlas

How should governments allocate resources to maintain economic stability and ensure broad access to essential services during the AI transition?

A Growing Gender Divide in the AI Economy — The Honest Economist

The article argues that AI is reshaping gender inequality even before the pay gap visibly widens. Women are more concentrated in clerical and administrative roles where AI can restructure work, while men are more concentrated in technical, AI-complementary roles. Among college graduates, the exposur