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As a complement to our empirical evaluations of frontier AI models, AISI is planning a series of collaborations and research projects sketching safety cases for more advanced models than exist today, focusing on risks from loss of control and autonomy. By a safety case, we mean a structured argument that an AI system is safe within a particular training or deployment context.
Clear, Compelling Arguments: Rethinking the Foundations of Frontier AI Safety Cases
This paper contributes to the nascent debate around safety cases for frontier AI systems. Safety cases are structured, defensible arguments that a system is acceptably safe to deploy in a given context. Historically, they have been used in safety-critical industries, such as aerospace, nuclear or automotive. As a result, safety cases for frontier AI have risen in prominence, both in the safety policies of leading frontier developers and in international research agendas proposed by leaders in generative AI, such as the Singapore Consensus on Global AI Safety Research Priorities and the International AI Safety Report. This paper appraises this work. We note that research conducted within the alignment community which draws explicitly on lessons from the assurance community has significant limitations. We therefore aim to rethink existing approaches to alignment safety cases. We offer lessons from existing methodologies within safety assurance and outline the limitations involved in the alignment community's current approach. Building on this foundation, we present a case study for a safety case focused on Deceptive Alignment and CBRN capabilities, drawing on existing, theoretical safety case "sketches" created by the alignment safety case community. Overall, we contribute holistic insights from the field of safety assurance via rigorous theory and methodologies that have been applied in safety-critical contexts. We do so in order to create a better foundational framework for robust, defensible and useful safety case methodologies which can help to assure the safety of frontier AI systems.
A Structured Approach to Safety Case Construction for AI Systems
Safety cases, structured arguments that a system is acceptably safe, are becoming central to the governance of AI systems. Yet, traditional safety-case practices from aviation or nuclear engineering rely on well-specified system boundaries, stable architectures, and known failure modes. Modern AI systems, such as generative and agentic AI, are the opposite. Their capabilities emerge unpredictably from low-level training objectives, their behaviour varies with prompts, and their risk profiles shift through fine-tuning, scaffolding, or deployment context. This study examines how safety cases are currently constructed for AI systems and why classical approaches fail to capture these dynamics. This study introduces comprehensive taxonomies for AI-specific claim types (assertion-based, constraint-based, capability-based), argument types (demonstrative, comparative, causal/explanatory, risk-based, and normative), and evidence families (empirical, mechanistic, comparative, expert-driven, formal methods, operational/field data, and model-based). It then proposes a reusable safety-case template, each of which follows a predefined structure of claims, arguments, and evidence tailored for AI systems. Each template is illustrated by end-to-end patterns that address distinctive challenges, such as evaluation without ground truth, dynamic model updates, and threshold-based risk decisions. The result is a systematic, composable, and reusable approach to constructing and maintaining safety cases that are credible, auditable, and adaptive to the evolving behaviour of generative and frontier AI systems.
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AI Companies Should Report Pre- and Post-Mitigation Safety Evaluations
The rapid advancement of AI systems has raised widespread concerns about potential harms of frontier AI systems and the need for responsible evaluation and oversight. In this position paper, we argue that frontier AI companies should report both pre- and post-mitigation safety evaluations to enable informed policy decisions. Evaluating models at both stages provides policymakers with essential evidence to regulate deployment, access, and safety standards. We show that relying on either in isolation can create a misleading picture of model safety. Our analysis of AI safety disclosures from leading frontier labs identifies three critical gaps: (1) companies rarely evaluate both pre- and post-mitigation versions, (2) evaluation methods lack standardization, and (3) reported results are often too vague to inform policy. To address these issues, we recommend mandatory disclosure of pre- and post- mitigation capabilities to approved government bodies, standardized evaluation methods, and minimum transparency requirements for public safety reporting. These ensure that policymakers and regulators can craft targeted safety measures, assess deployment risks, and scrutinize companies’ safety claims effectively.
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