Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?
41% chance. Resolves to YES if any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline on ForecastBench by July 2027. Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or if after January 1, 2027 we have results from enough LLMs (e.g. the leading models from the major AI labs at the time) to be confident this will not occur. If The Forecasting Research Institute tells us how this market should resolve, then we will go with what they say.
This El Niño is set to be the largest on record by a ‘mind-blowing margin’
Forecasters predict that the monster climate pattern will combine with global warming to push global temperatures in 2027 to new heights.
AI models have likely reached parity with superforecasters on ForecastBench
New results from the ForecastBench leaderboard suggest the gap between frontier AI and elite human forecasters is closing.
AIA Forecaster: Technical Report
Forecasting is a universal problem. Any system that makes informed judgments about what may happen in the future relies on at least some degree of forecasting. In agriculture, this takes the form of predicting future crop yields and food system resilience (5; 44; 33). In biotechnology and medicine, clinical trials are carefully designed to help researchers predict the impact of newly developed treatments (37; 7). Elsewhere in biology, AlphaFold can be viewed as a form of forecasting protein folding structure under uncertainty (19). In academia, grant funding is a form of forecasting which scientific discoveries will be made conditional on funding (48). Climate and environmental science models local and long-term weather trends, which are of universal importance (42; 35; 12). In political science, forecasting election outcomes and the impact of policy decisions are an essential component of political calculus (17; 53; 10). Militaries make use of forecasting for threat assessment and conflict predictions (58; 36). Forecasting is the very heartbeat of financial firms, which use it to estimate future economic conditions in an uncertain world (49). Wherever there is uncertainty about the future, there is forecasting.
The Expert Trap and the Next War
what forecasting failure tells us about the future
Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs
LLM forecasting exhibits high variance across runs. We run K=5K{=}5 independent trials and aggregate by averaging in logit space. We also explore LOO-tuned shrinkage toward p=0.5p{=}0.5 (inspired by James-Stein / empirical Bayes), which further helps on datasets with high trial variance.
Dave Troy on Twitter / X
Fears over datacenters are distorted along a few important axes:1) anxiety over AI, future employment, and control; they symbolize what people fear they are losing,2) compute centralization, which is actually probably not going to actually occur, because of financial…— Dave Troy (@davetroy) August 21, 2026
My 2026 Open Social Web Predictions - Tim Chambers
Predictions for 2026 include growth forecasts for various social media platforms, advancements in federated technologies, and anticipated shifts in how …
Bluesky in 2026: Predictions - Bluesky
As we head into 2026, we wanted to share a few predictions about what we think people will do online this year, with a taste of how we're building Bluesky to meet them there.
Prophecy: Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI
From an award-winning University of Oxford professor comes a brilliant, urgent new look at prophecies--the predictions that determine our lives, from our personal finances and the quality of our healthcare to the news and social media we consume and the produces foisted upon us
