Early AI adoption in U.S. manufacturing produced a J-curve pattern of short term productivity loss followed by medium term growth – though quite unevenly.
The ‘productivity paradox’ of AI adoption in manufacturing firms | MIT Sloan
Companies that adopt industrial artificial intelligence see productivity losses before longer-term gains, according to new research.
Differences in AI adoption in Europe and the US: Explanations and implications for productivity growth
The economic impact of generative AI will depend on the speed and breadth of adoption by workers and firms. Drawing on a survey of workers in the US and six European countries and a firm survey covering 32 European countries, this column explores the speed of AI adoption across countries and whether an ‘AI gap’ will exacerbate existing productivity differences between the US and Europe. There are large differences in AI adoption across countries, much of which are accounted for by management practices. Higher AI adoption rates are associated with faster productivity growth but not with changes in employment.
Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market • The Aspen Institute Economic Strategy Group
DAVID DEMING, CHRISTOPHER ONG, LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS This paper explores past episodes of technological disruption in the US labor market, with the goal of learning lessons about the likely future impact of artificial intelligence (AI). The authors measure changes in the structure of the US labor market going back over a century in two ways. ...
Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the U.S.
This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We do not find clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI.
The AI spending boom could have real consequences for the U.S. economy
As revisions to U.S. jobs numbers call into question economic growth, Big Tech is becoming an even more important part of American prosperity.
Companies rushed in on AI. Now some are pulling back
Rapid AI adoption left workers cleaning up a flood of errors and low-quality work
Thousands of CEOs just admitted AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago | Fortune
In the 1980s, economist Robert Solow made an observation that reminded economists of today’s AI boom: “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”
Thousands of CEOs admit AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago | Fortune
In the 1980s, economist Robert Solow made an observation that reminded economists of today’s AI boom: “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”
Andrej Karpathy on Twitter / X
Sharing an interesting recent conversation on AI's impact on the economy.AI has been compared to various historical precedents: electricity, industrial revolution, etc., I think the strongest analogy is that of AI as a new computing paradigm (Software 2.0) because both are…— Andrej Karpathy (@karpathy) November 16, 2025
When will average people feel AI’s impact?
We’re <5 years into a compounding revolution which could take a century, and how the AI industry should manage this.
The U.S. Census Bureau and “Super Intelligence”
I was reminded today of AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies, a chart produced by Apollo Global Management in September 2025, which appeared to show a slowdown in …
Companies Are Being Torn Apart by AI "Workslop," Stanford Research Finds
Not only is AI hampering productivity, but it's also blowing up collaboration and souring employee dynamics.
Why the tech industry can't keep up with the AI backlash
AI's externalities are growing faster than the industry can address them
Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools
How do the productivity effects of AI evolve across successive generations of tools, and to what extent do task-level gains ultimately translate into final outp
Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools
How do the productivity effects of AI evolve across successive generations of tools, and to what extent do task-level gains ultimately translate into final outp
A Bick, A Blandin, D Deming, N Fuchs-Schündeln, & J Jessen find large differences in AI adoption across countries, much of which are accounted for by management practices. Higher adoption rates are associated w/ + productivity growth but not w/ employment changes. cepr.org/voxeu/columns/differences-ai-… #EconSky
