Kateryna Bondar examines how Russia conceptualizes, builds, and adapts its command and control (C2) architecture under wartime pressures, in the first installment of a series on Russia’s use of AI in military operations.
The rise of AI sovereignty: Authoritarian technological imaginaries as a form of reflexive control
Recent literature increasingly examines generative artificial intelligence's (AI's) role in disinformation and propaganda as a key driver of digital authoritarianism. Yet, less attention has been paid to how authoritarian regimes may influence the global governance of AI itself. This essay addresses this gap by analysing the impact of authoritarian technological imaginaries, focusing on the rise of ‘AI sovereignty’ as a central concept shaping global AI governance. It adopts a conceptual framework that combines the notion of imaginaries with the concept of reflexive control, originating in Soviet strategic thought and referring to influencing an adversary's perceptions so they act in ways aligned with the initiator's goals, to study authoritarian diffusion and the global politics of AI. Through an examination of public statements by the Russian president, the study shows how Russia constructs an AI imaginary that extends Cold War logics of nuclear competition into the digital era, framing AI as a matter of security and survival rather than ethics or rights. Drawing on the Russian case, the analysis identifies three frames that underpin the authoritarian AI imaginary: AI as a tool for power and domination; Western AI as a cultural threat; and AI as a guarantor of state efficiency. The article argues that such imaginaries shape the cognitive environment of global policy debates, promoting sovereignty-centred and securitised approaches to AI governance. It suggests that recognising the role of reflexive control in authoritarian diffusion helps distinguish legitimate Global South concerns from authoritarian influence and supports more inclusive and resilient models of AI governance.
The rise of AI sovereignty: Authoritarian technological imaginaries as a form of reflexive control
Recent literature increasingly examines generative artificial intelligence's (AI's) role in disinformation and propaganda as a key driver of digital authoritarianism. Yet, less attention has been paid to how authoritarian regimes may influence the global governance of AI itself. This essay addresses this gap by analysing the impact of authoritarian technological imaginaries, focusing on the rise of ‘AI sovereignty’ as a central concept shaping global AI governance. It adopts a conceptual framework that combines the notion of imaginaries with the concept of reflexive control, originating in Soviet strategic thought and referring to influencing an adversary's perceptions so they act in ways aligned with the initiator's goals, to study authoritarian diffusion and the global politics of AI. Through an examination of public statements by the Russian president, the study shows how Russia constructs an AI imaginary that extends Cold War logics of nuclear competition into the digital era, framing AI as a matter of security and survival rather than ethics or rights. Drawing on the Russian case, the analysis identifies three frames that underpin the authoritarian AI imaginary: AI as a tool for power and domination; Western AI as a cultural threat; and AI as a guarantor of state efficiency. The article argues that such imaginaries shape the cognitive environment of global policy debates, promoting sovereignty-centred and securitised approaches to AI governance. It suggests that recognising the role of reflexive control in authoritarian diffusion helps distinguish legitimate Global South concerns from authoritarian influence and supports more inclusive and resilient models of AI governance.
‘I’m fighting two wars. One against the Russians. And one inside myself.’
A drone pilot and her all-women unit are waging a new kind of warfare on Ukraine’s eastern front
The shifting battlefield: technology, tactics, and the risk of blurring lines in warfare - Humanitarian Law & Policy Blog
The accelerating integration of emerging technologies into armed conflict is transforming not only the tools of war, but its tactics, geography, participants and impact. Technological developments – from commercial drones to artificial intelligence, electronic warfare to the military use of civilian infrastructure – risk undermining boundaries between military and civilian domains. These changes challenge long-held...
How the U.S. Military Learned to Embrace AI Warfare
A review of Katrina Manson, “Project Maven: A Marine Colonel, His Team, and the Dawn of AI Warfare” (Norton, 2026).
AI, Geopolitics, and National Security (Chapter 8)
Artificial intelligence is reshaping geopolitics by transforming how states generate, interpret, and project power. Rather than producing a single new weapon, AI operates as a general-purpose technology that scales perception, prediction, and decision-making across military, civilian, and informational domains. This chapter argues that AI rivalry increasingly depends on control over material and organizational foundations, including semiconductors, compute infrastructure, data centers, industrial coordination, and institutional adoption. It examines battlefield integration, U.S.–China competition, semiconductor statecraft, cyber operations, information power, and governance. The chapter shows that AI capabilities diffuse rapidly through commercial platforms, open-source ecosystems, and wartime experimentation, while frontier development remains constrained by infrastructure and supply-chain chokepoints. Because AI capability is difficult to measure or verify, governance is shifting away from traditional arms-control models toward export controls, standards, voluntary commitments, and multistakeholder coordination.
Dispersed, Disguised, and Degradable: The Implications of the Fighting in Ukraine for Future U.S.-Involved Conflicts
Wars reveal new information about warfighting and can spur changes in how foreign observers prepare for future conflicts. In this report, the authors make eight novel or notable observations about the Russia-Ukraine war and forecast how these observations might translate to a potential NATO-Russia or U.S.-China war. The authors also identify broader tactical, operational, and strategic implications for U.S. policymakers.
Statement from Dario Amodei on our discussions with the Department of War
A statement from our CEO on national security uses of AI
Agentic AI Governance: A Strategic Framework for Autonomous Systems
Agentic AI is moving from chat to action. Learn how to govern autonomous systems using the "Digital Contractor" framework and the 3-Tiered Guardrail system.
Putin’s High-Tech Russian Submarines Goad NATO Deep Below the Atlantic
NATO is fighting back against Russia’s submarine threat in cat-and-mouse games reminiscent of the Cold War
Russia’s FPV drone campaign in Ukraine institutionalizes intentional civilian harm as a tool of war
Russia's use of FPV drones to strike civilian targets in Ukraine indicates a culture seeking to weaponize civilian harm as a tool of war.
From chatbots to assistants: governance is key for AI agents
AI's shift into agentic technology ushers in a new set of governance and security challenges that will mean defining to what extent they should be autonomous
On AI and building your own GIS software
Of the thousands of essays over the past two years surrounding AI and its implications are some very thought provoking ones with enormous implications for GIS. Some of the essays are around the the…
Russia’s Drone Line Experiment - Foreign Policy Research Institute
The following analysis was originally published on Two Marines, a newsletter on Russia's war in Ukraine, defense technology, and modern warfare, on April 3,
In Ukraine, a New Arsenal of Killer A.I. Drones Is Being Born
As the war grinds on, sophisticated Russian defenses have pushed Ukraine to develop a frightening new weapon: semiautonomous killing machines.
