In every wave of our poll this year, screening for likely voters has nudged the congressional generic ballot a point or two bluer
The Median Voter Theorem is a Clarity Trap
What the Democratic party needs - what it demands - is bold, persistent experimentation
Let's Rethink the Primary Process for 2028
Primary season is closer than you think—can Democrats avoid their most damaging mistakes of 2020?
Democratic voters want the party to be more moderate — and more socialist?
The trouble with polling about ideological labels
Do AI and bogus respondents threaten polling’s future?
Courtney Kennedy, vice president of methods and innovation, answers some common questions about the current polling landscape in the U.S.
Polls (/c/Polls) - OddsRabbit
This community is just for polls - polls on literally anything your heart desires! Ask all the multiple choice questions you can think of!
FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages
A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.
Donate to the candidates on the front lines of the fight against MAGA gerrymandering
These are Democratic state candidates in *extremely* close races
Live Redistricting Tracker: All the Republican Gerrymanders — and Democrats’ Counter-Moves
Facing increasingly dire polls, President Donald Trump is determined to prevent Democrats from reclaiming the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections. So he’s pressuring Republican-controlled states to give the GOP an unfair edge by gerrymandering their congressional maps. Texas, North Carolina, and Missouri, have already done so.
Political Bias Audits of LLMs Capture Sycophancy to the Inferred Auditor
Large language models (LLMs) are commonly evaluated for political bias based on their responses to fixed questionnaires, which typically place frontier models on the political left. A parallel literature shows that LLMs are sycophantic: they adapt their answers to the views, identities, and expectations of the user. We show that these findings are linked: standard political-bias audits partly capture sycophantic accommodation to the inferred auditor. We employ a factorial experiment across three major audit instruments--the Political Compass Test, the Pew Political Typology, and 1,540 partisan-benchmarked Pew American Trends Panel items--administered to six frontier LLMs while varying only the asker's stated identity (N = 30,990 responses). At baseline, all six models lean left. When the asker identifies as a conservative Republican, responses shift sharply: the share of items closer to Democrats falls by 28-62 percentage points, and all six models move right of center. A mirror-image progressive-Democrat cue produces little change; rightward accommodation is 8.0$\times$ larger than leftward. When asked who the default asker is, models identify an auditor, researcher, or academic; when asked what answer that asker expects, they select the Democrat-coded option 75% of the time, nearly the rate under an explicit progressive cue. These patterns are inconsistent with a purely fixed model ideology and indicate that single-prompt audits capture an interaction between model and inferred interlocutor. Political bias in LLMs is therefore not a fixed point on an ideological scale but a response profile that must be mapped across realistic interlocutors.
Opinion | Trump and the Democrats: 13 Black Democratic Voters Discuss
The group discusses Donald Trump, America today and the future of the Democratic Party.
Opinion | This Is What Will Ruin Public Opinion Polling for Good
Instead of navigating the obstacles to conduct polls with human respondents, pollsters are running A.I. simulations instead. Why?
AI backlash is coming for elections
Americans are worried about AI — but how it will play into the midterms is less clear.
Trump sidesteps Hegseth 2028 speculation: 'We have to get through the midterms first'
The president's Republican Party is fighting to maintain control of both chambers of the US Congress in November's elections.
Anatomy of the Women’s Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election
The gender gap in American politics has become a chasm in recent years and 2024 was no exception.
Proportional Representation Would Fix That
We can change the structure of elections in America to make them more free, more democratic, and more fair to every voter.
Majority of US voters link extreme weather to climate crisis, study finds
Top Democrat says findings show public ‘way ahead of the politicians’ as Trump dismisses global heating as ‘hoax’
