Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study | JSTOR

Security and disinformation in the U.S. 2016 election

We have been conducting a thorough investigation related to the U.S. election across our products. Today, we are sharing results from that investigation.

Vaughn Palmer: Campaigns matter, and B.C.'s election history proves it

Vaughn Palmer: A columnist recalls the times election campaigns went sideways for the presumed leader

Undermining a Rival Party’s Issue Competence through Negative Campaigning: Experimental Evidence from the USA, Denmark, and Australia

Much party communication encourages voters to lower issue-related evaluations of rival parties. Yet, studies of such influence are rare. Drawing on research on political parties’ negative campaigning, this article starts to fill this gap. We triangulate evidence from four survey experiments across six issues in Denmark, the US, and Australia, and show that a party’s negative campaigning decreases voters’ evaluations of the target party’s issue-handling competence (i.e. issue ownership), but does not backlash on voters’ evaluations of the sponsor. Such attack on the target party does not have to be tied to a negative policy development like the crime rate to undermine the target party’s competence evaluations. At the same time, a negative policy development only undermines a party’s evaluations when it is accompanied by a rival party’s negative campaigning attack. The implications for party competition and the mass-elite linkage are important.

The LA Times Owner's Trump Turn Is Even Worse Than You Think | Parker Molloy's The Present Age

The Los Angeles Times is giving us a masterclass in how wealthy ownership can dismantle editorial independence from within. According to Oli

An Examination of Ranked Choice Voting in the United States, 2004-2022

From the perspective of social choice theory, ranked-choice voting (RCV) is known to have many flaws. RCV can fail to elect a Condorcet winner and is susceptible to monotonicity paradoxes and the spoiler effect, for example. We use a database of 182 American ranked-choice elections for political office from the years 2004-2022 to investigate empirically how frequently RCV's deficiencies manifest in practice. Our general finding is that RCV's weaknesses are rarely observed in real-world elections, with the exception that ballot exhaustion frequently causes majoritarian failures.

Partidismo negativo, derecha radical y voto: un análisis de su relación en el contexto de las elecciones generales españolas de 2023

Although the concept of partisan identification included a positive and a negative dimension as postulated by the Michigan model, the truth is that the latter dimension has received practically no attention. The present research aims to evaluate to what extent negative partisanship currently represents an explanatory factor of electoral behavior in Spain. Specifically, we study how, in the context of the Spanish general elections of July 2023, negative partisanship towards the radical right increased the probability of voting for the PSOE and whether, in turn, the rejection generated by the PSOE also promoted support for Vox. To test these hypotheses, we use data from the III National Survey of Political Polarization in Spain, elaborated by the Murcian Centre for Public Opinion Studies (CEMOP) in the middle of the election campaign. The results of the binary logistic regression models implemented show that negative partisanship towards the radical right represents a (novel) explanatory factor of the vote for the PSOE, but that Vox did not feed significantly on the rejection of the socialists —nor even of Sumar—.We also note the exceptional capacity of the radical right to arouse processes of negative identification, especially among women.

The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact in General Elections: Evidence from 49 Field Experiments

Significant theories of democratic accountability hinge on how political campaigns affect Americans’ candidate choices. We argue that the best estimate of the effects of campaign contact and advertising on Americans’ candidates choices in general elections is zero. First, a systematic meta-analysis of 40 field experiments estimates an average effect of zero in general elections. Second, we present nine original field experiments that increase the statistical evidence in the literature about the persuasive effects of personal contact tenfold. These experiments’ average effect is also zero. In both existing and our original experiments, persuasive effects only appear to emerge in two rare circumstances. First, when candidates take unusually unpopular positions and campaigns invest unusually heavily in identifying persuadable voters. Second, when campaigns contact voters long before election day and measure effects immediately—although this early persuasion decays. These findings contribute to ongoing debates about how political elites influence citizens’ judgments.

How the Cases You Choose Affect the Answers You Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics

This article demonstrates how the selection of cases for study on the basis of outcomes on the dependent variable biases conclusions. It first lays out the logic of explanation and shows how it is violated when only cases that have achieved the outcome of interest are studied. It then examines three well-known and highly regarded studies in the field of comparative politics, comparing the conclusions reached in the original work with a test of the arguments on cases selected without regard for their position on the dependent variable. In each instance, conclusions based on the uncorrelated sample differ from the original conclusions.

Election polling errors across time and space

Are election polling misses becoming more prevalent? Are they more likely in some contexts than others? Here we undertake an over-time and cross-national assessment of prediction errors in pre-election polls. Our analysis draws on more than 30,000 national polls from 351 general elections in 45 countries between 1942 and 2017. We proceed in the following way. First, building on previous studies, we show how errors in national polls evolve in a structured way over the election timeline. Second, we examine errors in polls in the final week of the election campaign to assess performance across election years. Third, we undertake a pooled analysis of polling errors—controlling for a number of institutional and party features—that enables us to test whether poll errors have increased or decreased over time. We find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the recent performance of polls has not been outside the ordinary. However, the performance of polls does vary across political contexts and in understandable ways.

Local News and National Politics

The level of journalistic resources dedicated to coverage of local politics is in a long-term decline in the US news media, with readership shifting to national outlets. We investigate whether this trend is demand- or supply-driven, exploiting a recent wave of local television station acquisitions by a conglomerate owner. Using extensive data on local news programming and viewership, we find that the ownership change led to (1) substantial increases in coverage of national politics at the expense of local politics, (2) a significant rightward shift in the ideological slant of coverage, and (3) a small decrease in viewership, all relative to the changes at other news programs airing in the same media markets. These results suggest a substantial supply-side role in the trends toward nationalization and polarization of politics news, with negative implications for accountability of local elected officials and mass polarization.

Local News and National Politics

The level of journalistic resources dedicated to coverage of local politics is in a long-term decline in the US news media, with readership shifting to national outlets. We investigate whether this trend is demand- or supply-driven, exploiting a recent wave of local television station acquisitions by a conglomerate owner. Using extensive data on local news programming and viewership, we find that the ownership change led to (1) substantial increases in coverage of national politics at the expense of local politics, (2) a significant rightward shift in the ideological slant of coverage, and (3) a small decrease in viewership, all relative to the changes at other news programs airing in the same media markets. These results suggest a substantial supply-side role in the trends toward nationalization and polarization of politics news, with negative implications for accountability of local elected officials and mass polarization.

Priorities | celeste4sos.com

The right to vote, better representation and election integrity.

Recent Utah, Texas incidents fuel rumors and political narratives undermining trust in election integrity

A CIP Election Rumor Rundown

Trump vs. Harris : du genre à l’intersectionnalité - AOC media

On s'attendait au gender gap le plus important de l'histoire ; il n'en a rien été. Plus qu'une simple question de genre, une lecture intersectionnelle du vote qui a permis la réélection de Donald Trump introduit une lucidité sur les rapports de pouvoir en jeu. Regarder qui vote, et surtout qui s'abstient, met en lumière la redéfinition des fractures politiques à l'œuvre, où l’education gap et les logiques de classe se croisent avec les enjeux de genre et de race.

How Media – Namely News, Ads and Social Posts – Can Shape an Election

How Media – Namely News, Ads and Social Posts – Can Shape an Election 

Media Ownership Monitor

Mass media influences how facts are viewed and debated in a society, contributing to crafting its public opinion. Independence and pluralism...