We are headed toward a world of productivity without prosperity, execution without verification and capacity without constraint. But this outcome is not inevitable.
What Humanity Needs To Flourish In The Next Decade
We are headed toward a world of productivity without prosperity, execution without verification and capacity without constraint. But this outcome is not inevitable.
The end of capitalism has begun
Without us noticing, we are entering the postcapitalist era. At the heart of further change to come is information technology, new ways of working and the sharing economy. The old ways will take a long while to disappear, but it’s time to be utopian
After Forty Years, Still No Silver Bullet
As always, technology can help with production. What’s scarce is orientation.
Denizen
How might we promote and sustain human prosperity and well being in an economy of permanence? John Fullerton takes his cues from stable, healthy living systems to formulate eight principles for a regenerative economy.
Why Centralized AI Is Not Our Inevitable Future
Sam Altman’s vision of a “gentle singularity” where AI gradually transforms society presents an alluring future of abundance and human flourishing. His optimism about AI’s p…
The Limits to Growth: A report for the Club of Rome's project on the predicament of mankind
"I do not wish to seem overdramatic, but I can only conclude from the information that is available to me as Secretary–General, that the Members of the United Nations have perhaps ten years left in which to subordinate their ancient quarrels and launch a global partnership to curb the arms race, to improve the human environment, to defuse the population explosion, and to supply the required momentum to development efforts. If such a global partnership is not forged within the next decade, then I very much fear that the problems I have mentioned will have reached such staggering proportions that they will be beyond our capacity to control."
Gradual disempowerment | 80,000 Hours
The proliferation of advanced AI systems may lead to the gradual disempowerment of humanity, even if efforts to prevent them from becoming power-seeking or scheming are successful. Humanity may be incentivised to hand over increasing amounts of control to AIs, giving them power over the economy, politics, culture, and more. Over time, humanity's interests may be sidelined and our control over the future undermined, potentially constituting an existential catastrophe. There's disagreement over how serious a problem this is and how it relates to [other concerns about AI alignment](https://80000hours.o
Grow like Trees: An Organic Approach to Societal Regrowth
2026 is the year that system breakdown became impossible to deny. Democratic norms, societal norms, rule of law, the fabric of the social contract tearing as we watch. Or hide, unwilling or unable to face the unravelling. The hopeful among us see opportunity through the dark. Tentatively or boldly we
1% for the People
Capitalism is the undisputed powerplant of global prosperity. Since Adam Smith first described the “invisible hand” that allows economies to be efficiently self-organizing and self-renewing, every attempt to supplant it with a competing system has failed spectacularly.
On technological optimism and technological pragmatism
"There are no guarantees that things are going to turn out very well for anyone.”
Enough Debate about the AI Jobpocalypse. We Need To Plan for the Messy Middle.
Caught between arguments of abundance and apocalypse, economist Molly Kinder explores what workers can expect in the near future — and what we can do about it.
Scenarios for our Economic Future
The Anthropic Economics Team models the effects of AI on the economy of 2030.
‘Self-termination is most likely’: the history and future of societal collapse
An epic analysis of 5,000 years of civilisation argues that a global collapse is coming unless inequality is vanquished
A Trillion-Dollar Industry Deserves a Better Engine — Renaissance Philanthropy – A brighter future for all through science, technology, and innovation
With a new wave of philanthropic capital on the horizon, the most pressing binding constraint on that capital won't be the will to give it away; it will be the operational capacity to do so well.
Collective Flourishing
Our tools for navigating the future haven't kept pace with its growing complexity. Creating new systems that integrate a deep understanding of people, profound advances in modelling and foresight, and expressive interfaces could help us see, reason, and choose a better future together.
