How speculation gets laundered through pseudo-quantification
The AI safety vibe shift
Once a fringe obsession of Bay Area rationalists, existential risk is suddenly all anyone is talking about
AI Epistemic Risks: Emerging Mechanisms & Evidence
<p>Advances in artificial intelligence pose risks to humanity's collective capacity to form accurate beliefs, reason well, and maintain a healthy information en
Misleading Metaphors, Real Risks
What To Fear from AI Agents and How to Reclaim Our Human Agency
The Preference Cascade Is Only Getting Started
We are in the midst of a preference cascade about existential risk from AI.
AI Researchers On AI Risk
I first became interested in AI risk back around 2007. At the time, most people’s response to the topic was “Haha, come back when anyone believes this besides random Internet crackpots.…
Our Uncertain Uncertainties
Even the experts inventing AI don’t know what will happen next.
How AI can lead to false arrests and wrongful convictions
Danger arises when law enforcement believes that AI models are retrieving certainties rather than generating likelihoods.
How AI can lead to false arrests and wrongful convictions
Danger arises when law enforcement believes that AI models are retrieving certainties rather than generating likelihoods.
AI FOR EPISTEMICS & COORDINATION
Civilization and technology have radically improved the human condition. Nonetheless, the world sometimes goes in directions which essentially nobody would prefer — e.g., nuclear arms races, unexpected financial crashes, predatory marketing, or ubiquitous political misinformation.
Private inference
When you use an AI service, you’re handing over your thoughts in plaintext. The operator stores them, trains on them, and–inevitably–will monetize them. You get a response; they get everything.
Counterarguments to the basic AI x-risk case
Sixteen weaknesses in the classic argument for AI risk.
"AI" is Automated Inequality
Tech bros still dominate the discussions about so-called "AI" with false claims. Even most "AI"-critical researchers spend much of their time meticulously debunking (always only a subset of) claims, leaving vast areas of the economic consequences of "AI" unexplored. (Even the "AI"-evangelist Economi
