It will always be saved.
The stock market fetish
The most recent turmoil in the stock market caused by Donald Trump’s ill-considered policy to impose tariffs on the entire world, has brought up one legitimate question: what is the correct attitude towards stock market declines and crashes?
The Value of Nothing: Capital versus Growth - American Affairs Journal
Throughout 2021, U.S. stock market valuations have hovered near all‑time highs. In June, the unadjusted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 index eclipsed the tech boom record of 2000. Many other asset classes have attained, or nearly attained, record valuations as well. Stratospheric valuations may be partially attributable to the unique circumstances surrounding Covid-19...
Report - Brace for Impact: Protecting People and the Economy when the AI Bubble Bursts — Open Markets Institute
Our report in partnership with Americans for Financial Reform outlines vulnerabilities in the financial system and wider economy that could intensify an AI crash into the next financial crisis, and provides steps that policymakers can take to mitigate the damage and protect everyday people from bear
Why the man behind 'The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble' thinks Wall Street's hottest trade will go bust
The A.I. Boom and the Spectre of 1929
As some financial leaders fret publicly about the stock market falling to earth, Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book recounts the greatest crash of them all.
Attention Is All You Need #2: This Time Is Different
What can we learn from the 2007 Global Financial Crisis and the 1990’s dot-com bubble?
Opinion | We’re Measuring the Economy All Wrong (Published 2018)
The official statistics say that the financial crisis is behind us. It's not.
Japan’s Nikkei Hits New Record High
The Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.8% to trade above 63,700 on Thursday, setting fresh all-time highs as strong corporate earnings and upbeat guidance reinforced investor confidence, while sustained demand for artificial intelligence-related stocks continued to drive gains. Japanese equities also mirrored a tech-led rally on Wall Street overnight, even as accelerating US inflation fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve could still opt for another rate hike. At the same time, markets remained focused on the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with discussions expected to prioritize trade relations. Among individual movers, gains were led by Kioxia Holdings (1.7%), Furukawa Electric (1.5%), Advantest (2.8%), Fanuc (10.4%) and Resonac Holdings (15.6%). In contrast, mining firm Mitsui Kinzoku fell 11.8% after issuing a weaker profit forecast for FY2027 despite projecting higher sales.
The Dividend Disconnect
ABSTRACT Many individual investors, mutual funds, and institutions trade as if dividends and capital gains are disconnected attributes, not fully appreciating that dividends result in price decreases. Behavioral trading patterns (e.g., the disposition effect) are driven by price changes instead of total returns. Investors rarely reinvest dividends, and trade as if dividends are a separate, stable income stream. Analysts fail to account for the effect of dividends on price, leading to optimistic price forecasts for dividend‐paying stocks. Demand for dividends is systematically higher in periods of low interest rates and poor market performance, leading to lower returns for dividend‐paying stocks.
Tax and the Law of Market Cycles
<p>The signature development in financial regulation over the past two decades has been the macroprudential turn: the recognition that healthy financial conditi
The end of theory? AI and ignorance in financial markets
AI’s growing role in finance challenges traditional expectations of transparency and theoretical understanding. While machine learning (ML) models enhance financial decision-making, they remain largely agnostic to established financial theories, producing knowledge and ignorance in ways that differ from traditional models like VaR, DCF, and Black-Scholes. This essay explores the decoupling of AI models from theoretical financial knowledge and the resulting forms of ignorance. Using 22 semi-structured interviews, we investigate how ML models generate epistemic uncertainties. We focus on causal ignorance: AI systems, including those supported by XAI, fail to provide genuine causal explanations. Because understanding causation is inherently theoretical, AI-driven finance remains theory-agnostic and marked by theoretical ignorance. We explore how this ignorance differs from that of traditional models and what it implies for the role of theory in finance. Finally, we present three possible scenarios for the future of theory in finance and outline directions for further research.
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Why the super rich are inevitable
Why some mathematicians argue the economy is designed to create a few super rich people – unless we stop it.
