Amid an unclear picture overall, two Victorian state polls show encouraging results for the Greens.
Victorian polls have Coalition leading Labor by narrow to large margins
About three months out from the Victorian state election, the five polls released since the state got a new premier all show the Coalition in front.
Victorian Election Polls 2026: The Third Corner
Updated 16 October 2026: the Coalition leads 53.9–46.1 across the eleven Victorian polls since the change of Premier, with One Nation on 22.7 per cent.
Victorian Election is ‘too close to call’ today: ALP/Greens (46 seats) narrowly ahead of L-NP/ONP (42 seats); One Nation set to win over 10 seats in Lower House - Roy Morgan Research
Before all candidates are locked in, before preference deals are done, and before the campaign begins in earnest in the next few weeks Roy Morgan has created a Winnability Score. It combines current State voting intention with how closely an electorate's voter profile aligns with each party's core support base. In other words, it measures not only who is currently voting for a party, but also which voters are most likely to be persuaded to support that party.
Victorian election polls 2026 — average and ledger — Australian Election Tracker
Victorian state election 2026 polls: sourced statewide primary votes and a transparent weighted average with uncertainty bands. Latest tracker average (as of 2026-10-10): Labor 24.5%, Coalition 29.1%, One Nation 22.6%, Greens 14.9%, Others 8.9%. Not a forecast.
Victorian State Voting Intention: L-NP (26%) and ALP (26%) level on primary and ahead of One Nation (23.5%); however, L-NP narrowly leads ALP on two-party preferred basis (51% cf. 49%) - Roy Morgan Research
In early August the L-NP Coalition 26% (up 2% since April) and ALP 26% (up 0.5%) are level on primary vote ahead of One Nation 23.5% (down 1%) and 24.5% (down 1.5%) support Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 12.5% (down 1%), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8% (down 0.5%) according to a special SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.
The Performance of the Polls in the 2019 General Election - British Polling Council
The Performance of the Polls in the 2019 General Election
Victorian State Voting Intention: One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of ALP (25.5%) and L-NP Coalition (21.5%) on primary vote nine months before Victorian State Election - Roy Morgan Research
Only nine months before a State Election, Victorian electors are split with One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of the governing ALP (25.5%), and the official Opposition L-NP Coalition (21.5%). In addition, 13.5% support the Greens and a further 13% support other minor parties and Independents according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from February 13-16, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,462 electors.
Vegetarian buffet and a ‘free dental’ raffle prize: Greens launch bullish bid to ‘take our country back’ in Victoria
New federal leader David Shoebridge says November’s poll will herald the start of an ‘extraordinary moment’ as Greens hope for best-ever state result
Victorian Liberals to preference One Nation at state election
The preference strategy, while designed to galvanise the anti-Labor vote across the state, risks a backlash in the party’s urban and middle-suburb heartland.
Victorian Greens launch $18 billion ‘Fair Share’ Plan and make election pitch to young people and voters fed up with the major parties | The Australian Greens
Victorian Greens Leader Ellen Sandell will use the party’s Campaign Conference on Saturday to make the Greens’ clearest pitch yet to young people and voters fed up with the major parties, declaring the Greens are ‘not just here to pressure Labor, we’re here to
Victorian State Voting Intention: ALP (25.5%) holds ground and now leads One Nation (24.5%) and L-NP Coalition (24%) on primary vote in the week before the Nepean by-election - Roy Morgan Research
Only seven months before a State Election, Victorian electors continue to remain split four ways with the governing ALP 25.5% (unchanged from February 2026) now just ahead of One Nation 24.5% (down 2% points) and the L-NP Coalition 24% (up 2.5% points) and 26% (up 0.5% points) supporting Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 13.5% (unchanged), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8.5% (down 0.5% points according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from April 22-24, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,707 electors.
Victorian State Election November 28th 2026 - Vote Climate One
The disturbing rise of One Nation has radically changed the Australian political landscape. Vote Climate One is now forced to overhaul our strategic preferencing advice, not just federally, but for this state election as well. We now have the threat of the Liberal Party preferencing One Nation and a potential coalition between One Nation and …
Exclusive poll shows nearly half of respondents defecting from Victorian Labor. What do these voters care about?
Victorian voters surveyed named cost of living, crime and health as their top three policy issues, with just over three months until the next state election.
Guardian Essential poll: Labor’s housing and tax changes fail to win over voters as support for One Nation swells
Just 25% of Australians polled back the budget while the majority believe the government has fallen short of expectations over the past year
Victoria Poll Briefing, August 2026
The first DemosAU/PremierNational Victorian poll since Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan, with the Coalition leading 55–45 after preferences.
