The lament that the United States is turning into a third-world country is at once too pessimistic and too optimistic. What is actually happening is that a…
Weirding Diary: 11
We're barely seven weeks into 2020, and it's already the weirdest year in my living memory. We've been through: Australia on fire, a near-war between the US…
The Future History of America and the World to 2050
The introduction to a positive and plausible scenario about how we could solve our many challenges and transform our world for the better
Weirding Diary: 8
Elections in India and EU, and the US-China trade war, have sparked a fresh round of prognostications in my feeds, on the expected length of the global…
The Return of the Cutting-Off Way
Structural changes are driving us towards a more chaotic world, defined by "neither peace nor war, but conflict."
annotations: La tiers-mondisation de l'Amérique
traduction française du billet de blog "The third-worlding of America" de Paul Krugman
Weirding Diary: 10
It is now clear that the intellectual class has been caught entirely flat-footed on the wrong side of the Great Weirding in the US. Almost all discourses at…
The Expert Trap and the Next War
what forecasting failure tells us about the future
Beyond Catastrophe: A New Climate Reality Is Coming Into View (Published 2022)
There's plenty of bad news. But thanks to real progress, we're headed toward a less apocalyptic future.
How America will collapse (by 2025)
Four scenarios that could spell the end of the United States as we know it -- in the very near future
Why the midterms make me optimistic for America
A win for stability and reasonability.
It's a torturous chaos until it isn't
Even at wildly successful startups, the first few years are gut-wrenching, uncertain, on the brink of collapse, where pessimism is realism, and yet optimism is required.
International relations has a problem with the future
Then, so does everything else
Populism, Media Revolutions, and Our Terrible Moment
The Great Realignment: Why the New Right Is Here to Stay
The re-election of Donald Trump has illustrated in spectacular fashion the extent to which politics all over the world is in a state of continual flux. Old political configurations and parties are under unprecedented strain, with new forces, particularly on the hard right, challenging the status quo everywhere. Rejecting stale analyses based on moralistic panics about 'populism' or social media, political commentator Steve Davies shows how we are going through a deep-seated process of realignment rooted in underlying structural trends. We are transitioning, he argues, from an era where the key political division was over the economic structure of society to one where the primary division is between a vision rooted in national identity and sovereignty, and an essentially post-national cosmopolitanism. This change upends the ideological and electoral alliances that have structured our political systems for decades. No-one who wishes to truly understand the crises currently roiling the political status quo can afford to miss this stunning panoramic analysis of how this process works and how it is playing out across the world, from the USA and Germany to Argentina and India, and beyond.
Hello I'm an American living in a red state. I wrote a little thing for Europeans explaining the current the moment in the US. It's important that people understand why this is happening, because a similar thing is coming for most democracies. docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vRPrDiXk2…
