Elections in India and EU, and the US-China trade war, have sparked a fresh round of prognostications in my feeds, on the expected length of the global…
Weirding Diary: 7
The lament that the United States is turning into a third-world country is at once too pessimistic and too optimistic. What is actually happening is that a…
Weirding Diary: 11
We're barely seven weeks into 2020, and it's already the weirdest year in my living memory. We've been through: Australia on fire, a near-war between the US…
The shallow impact of India’s AI summit
The US government still can’t think beyond “winning.” The rest of the world is still thinking too small
Election polling errors across time and space
Are election polling misses becoming more prevalent? Are they more likely in some contexts than others? Here we undertake an over-time and cross-national assessment of prediction errors in pre-election polls. Our analysis draws on more than 30,000 national polls from 351 general elections in 45 countries between 1942 and 2017. We proceed in the following way. First, building on previous studies, we show how errors in national polls evolve in a structured way over the election timeline. Second, we examine errors in polls in the final week of the election campaign to assess performance across election years. Third, we undertake a pooled analysis of polling errors—controlling for a number of institutional and party features—that enables us to test whether poll errors have increased or decreased over time. We find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the recent performance of polls has not been outside the ordinary. However, the performance of polls does vary across political contexts and in understandable ways.
Cambridge Analytica and the end of elections
The latest Cambridge Analytica leaks show just how compromised voting - one of the pillars of democracy - has become.
Election Rumor Rundown for October 13: Emerging rumors around voting machines and ‘ballot dumping’
DHS reports misconstrue vulnerabilities as having been exploited, “Ballot Dumping” in Valley Center misleadingly suggest mass voter fraud, and prediction markets already advertising election bettin…
Iran, prices, ICE, and Epstein are the biggest stories of 2026
In a new database of news headlines stretching back to 2016, I show Trump's midterm convention failed to change news agendas
Government Ratings - Nira Data
Track global public opinion, political sentiment, and trust in government with insights from the 2025 Global Political Opinion Report.
One Nation is soaring in polls. Winning power is much harder.
The nationalist party is riding high, but will struggle to convert its poll leads into parliament seats
The Plot to Subvert an Election: Unraveling the Russia Story So Far (Published 2018)
For two years, Americans have tried to absorb the details of the 2016 attack: spies, leaked emails, social media fraud — and President Trump’s claims that it’s all a hoax. The Times explores what we know and what it means.
Last Year on My Mac: Look back in disbelief
If someone had told me 12 months ago what was going to happen this past year, I wouldn’t have believed them. Skipping swiftly past all the political, economic and social turmoil, I come to th…
The Expert Trap and the Next War
what forecasting failure tells us about the future
Hello I'm an American living in a red state. I wrote a little thing for Europeans explaining the current the moment in the US. It's important that people understand why this is happening, because a similar thing is coming for most democracies. docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vRPrDiXk2…
World News
World news: politics, geopolitics, crisis.
Crypto firm Binance covers 90% of losses after $6.3bn hack
North Korea Responsible for $6 Billion+ Binance Attack | Federal Bureau of Investigation
Justice Department seeks to isolate Alaska ballots as criminal probe underway over Senate candidate
Citing preamble to NVRA, DOJ sues to enjoin certification of Alaska's Senate race (it won't go anywhere) #ELB
Justice Department’s Dan Sullivan criminal probe accelerates after Alaska campaign revelations | CNN Politics
Alaska's Two Dans, Four Days Before the Vote: What the Justice Department Pleads, What It Borrows From the New York Times, and What a Court Has to Decide by Monday
