Over the past fortnight the ALP maintains an election winning lead with 26% (unchanged from two weeks ago) of the primary vote, ahead of One Nation on 24% (down 1.5%). The L-NP Coalition primary is 21.5% (down 1%): (18.5% Liberal, 3% Nationals); Greens 15% (unchanged) and Independent/Others 13.5% (up 2.5%).
Victorian State Voting Intention: L-NP (26%) and ALP (26%) level on primary and ahead of One Nation (23.5%); however, L-NP narrowly leads ALP on two-party preferred basis (51% cf. 49%) - Roy Morgan Research
In early August the L-NP Coalition 26% (up 2% since April) and ALP 26% (up 0.5%) are level on primary vote ahead of One Nation 23.5% (down 1%) and 24.5% (down 1.5%) support Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 12.5% (down 1%), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8% (down 0.5%) according to a special SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.
Victorian State Voting Intention: ALP (25.5%) holds ground and now leads One Nation (24.5%) and L-NP Coalition (24%) on primary vote in the week before the Nepean by-election - Roy Morgan Research
Only seven months before a State Election, Victorian electors continue to remain split four ways with the governing ALP 25.5% (unchanged from February 2026) now just ahead of One Nation 24.5% (down 2% points) and the L-NP Coalition 24% (up 2.5% points) and 26% (up 0.5% points) supporting Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 13.5% (unchanged), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8.5% (down 0.5% points according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from April 22-24, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,707 electors.
Victorian State Voting Intention: One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of ALP (25.5%) and L-NP Coalition (21.5%) on primary vote nine months before Victorian State Election - Roy Morgan Research
Only nine months before a State Election, Victorian electors are split with One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of the governing ALP (25.5%), and the official Opposition L-NP Coalition (21.5%). In addition, 13.5% support the Greens and a further 13% support other minor parties and Independents according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from February 13-16, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,462 electors.
Victorian Election is ‘too close to call’ today: ALP/Greens (46 seats) narrowly ahead of L-NP/ONP (42 seats); One Nation set to win over 10 seats in Lower House - Roy Morgan Research
Before all candidates are locked in, before preference deals are done, and before the campaign begins in earnest in the next few weeks Roy Morgan has created a Winnability Score. It combines current State voting intention with how closely an electorate's voter profile aligns with each party's core support base. In other words, it measures not only who is currently voting for a party, but also which voters are most likely to be persuaded to support that party.
The Pattern of One Nation support in NSW
In the near three decades I’ve been following One Nation’s election results, one thing has been constant. Whatever the party’s overall level of vote, its geographic distribution o…
Victorian election polls 2026 — average and ledger — Australian Election Tracker
Victorian state election 2026 polls: sourced statewide primary votes and a transparent weighted average with uncertainty bands. Latest tracker average (as of 2026-10-10): Labor 24.5%, Coalition 29.1%, One Nation 22.6%, Greens 14.9%, Others 8.9%. Not a forecast.
Landslide
The 2025 Australian federal election saw an unexpected landslide victory for the Labor Party, the Liberal Party’s worst ever result and the continued rise of the non-major-party vote. In this book, Australia’s leading election analysts explore what contributed to this outcome, including the effectiveness of party and third-party campaigns, the changing demography of the
Guardian Essential poll: Labor’s housing and tax changes fail to win over voters as support for One Nation swells
Just 25% of Australians polled back the budget while the majority believe the government has fallen short of expectations over the past year
Can the Liberals topple Victoria's government at the state election?
The Victorian state election is less than 100 days away. With One Nation's popularity riding high, how might the Coalition wrest power from Labor?
'I am shocked': Unpacking One Nation's spectacular rise in the polls
Pauline Hanson's One Nation has seen the fastest polling rise in modern Australian politics. What is going on?
Victorian polls have Coalition leading Labor by narrow to large margins
About three months out from the Victorian state election, the five polls released since the state got a new premier all show the Coalition in front.
Voter Studies | Australian Election Study
The AES routinely collects data among a nationally representative sample of voters and among major party candidates standing for election (the latter is the Australian Candidate Study – ACS). Both the voter and candidate instruments combine a common set of questions. More details on the general methodology used are detailed below, and specific information about the methods used for a particular year is available from the information page for that wave.
Victorian State Election November 28th 2026 - Vote Climate One
The disturbing rise of One Nation has radically changed the Australian political landscape. Vote Climate One is now forced to overhaul our strategic preferencing advice, not just federally, but for this state election as well. We now have the threat of the Liberal Party preferencing One Nation and a potential coalition between One Nation and …
One Nation is soaring in polls. Winning power is much harder.
The nationalist party is riding high, but will struggle to convert its poll leads into parliament seats
Coalition back in front of One Nation following change of Liberal Leader and men swing heavily to the L-NP - Roy Morgan Research
New Coalition Leader Angus Taylor has led the Liberal-National Coalition back in front of One Nation on his first weekend as Liberal Leader with the Roy Morgan Poll showing primary support for the L-NP Coalition up 3.5% to 23.5%, and One Nation down 3.5% to 21.5%.
Candidates - One Nation Victoria
This election One Nation has achieved candidate representation right across Australia. Check out One Nation's candidates and how-to-vote suggestions here. It's time to stand up and speak out.
