Now that we have a complete two-party-preferred vote for all of Australia, we can look at the distribution of seat margins and swings across the country. For this post, I have produced a number of …
Pendulum – Victoria 2026
The following table shows all Legislative Assembly electorates to be contested at the 2026 Victorian state election, ordered according to two-candidate-preferred margin. The seat of Prahran is posi…
How One Nation won in Farrer: the maps that show the big swings across the seat
The swing played out throughout the electorate – even in places like Albury – although the gains were largest in rural areas
2026 Victorian Election Pendulum
(Update – Three days after this post was published, Jacinta Allan was replaced as Premier by Ben Carroll. The post has been left as originally published.) Victoria’s state election on 2…
Poll tracker – VIC 2026 state election – The Swing Is On
Victorian state primary vote polling since the 2022 election.
Victorian election polls 2026 — average and ledger — Australian Election Tracker
Victorian state election 2026 polls: sourced statewide primary votes and a transparent weighted average with uncertainty bands. Latest tracker average (as of 2026-10-10): Labor 24.5%, Coalition 29.1%, One Nation 22.6%, Greens 14.9%, Others 8.9%. Not a forecast.
Landslide
The 2025 Australian federal election saw an unexpected landslide victory for the Labor Party, the Liberal Party’s worst ever result and the continued rise of the non-major-party vote. In this book, Australia’s leading election analysts explore what contributed to this outcome, including the effectiveness of party and third-party campaigns, the changing demography of the
The Pattern of One Nation support in NSW
In the near three decades I’ve been following One Nation’s election results, one thing has been constant. Whatever the party’s overall level of vote, its geographic distribution o…
Victorian State Voting Intention: L-NP (26%) and ALP (26%) level on primary and ahead of One Nation (23.5%); however, L-NP narrowly leads ALP on two-party preferred basis (51% cf. 49%) - Roy Morgan Research
In early August the L-NP Coalition 26% (up 2% since April) and ALP 26% (up 0.5%) are level on primary vote ahead of One Nation 23.5% (down 1%) and 24.5% (down 1.5%) support Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 12.5% (down 1%), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8% (down 0.5%) according to a special SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.
Victorian State Voting Intention: ALP (25.5%) holds ground and now leads One Nation (24.5%) and L-NP Coalition (24%) on primary vote in the week before the Nepean by-election - Roy Morgan Research
Only seven months before a State Election, Victorian electors continue to remain split four ways with the governing ALP 25.5% (unchanged from February 2026) now just ahead of One Nation 24.5% (down 2% points) and the L-NP Coalition 24% (up 2.5% points) and 26% (up 0.5% points) supporting Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 13.5% (unchanged), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8.5% (down 0.5% points according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from April 22-24, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,707 electors.
Victorian State Voting Intention: One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of ALP (25.5%) and L-NP Coalition (21.5%) on primary vote nine months before Victorian State Election - Roy Morgan Research
Only nine months before a State Election, Victorian electors are split with One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of the governing ALP (25.5%), and the official Opposition L-NP Coalition (21.5%). In addition, 13.5% support the Greens and a further 13% support other minor parties and Independents according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from February 13-16, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,462 electors.
Victoria is about to have the most unpredictable election in living memory
Much has been written about the rise of Pauline Hanson's One Nation in the past 12 months. The Victorian election will give us our best look yet at the decline of the two-party system.
Unpopular leaders punished at the polls in 2022 election
Scott Morrison and Barnaby Joyce were the most unpopular leaders of any party since 1987, new analysis of the 2022 federal election from The Australian National University (ANU) shows. The findings come from the joint ANUpoll/Comparative Study of Electoral Systems survey of more than 3,500 voters, which examined Australians' political attitudes before and after the 21 May vote. Study co-author Professor Ian McAllister said the findings show leaders were more important than in previous elections.
Victorian Election is ‘too close to call’ today: ALP/Greens (46 seats) narrowly ahead of L-NP/ONP (42 seats); One Nation set to win over 10 seats in Lower House - Roy Morgan Research
Before all candidates are locked in, before preference deals are done, and before the campaign begins in earnest in the next few weeks Roy Morgan has created a Winnability Score. It combines current State voting intention with how closely an electorate's voter profile aligns with each party's core support base. In other words, it measures not only who is currently voting for a party, but also which voters are most likely to be persuaded to support that party.
Victorian State Election November 28th 2026 - Vote Climate One
The disturbing rise of One Nation has radically changed the Australian political landscape. Vote Climate One is now forced to overhaul our strategic preferencing advice, not just federally, but for this state election as well. We now have the threat of the Liberal Party preferencing One Nation and a potential coalition between One Nation and …
One Nation’s wall — projected Victorian electoral funding
If One Nation’s latest Victorian polling holds, how much public and admin funding will it collect over the next five years?