I think I’m probably going to lose quite a lot of money in the next year or two. It’s partly AI’s fault, but not mostly. Nonetheless I’m mostly going to write about AI, because it intersects the technosphere, where I’ve lived for decades.
AI is probably not a bubble
AI companies have revenue, demand, and paths to immense value
AI is probably not a bubble
AI companies have revenue, demand, and paths to immense value
Timing Is Everything in the AI Bubble
This week's tech sell-off is a symptom of a deeper problem: no one knows when - or how - big tech's $1 trillion bet on AI is going to pay off.
Report - Brace for Impact: Protecting People and the Economy when the AI Bubble Bursts — Open Markets Institute
Our report in partnership with Americans for Financial Reform outlines vulnerabilities in the financial system and wider economy that could intensify an AI crash into the next financial crisis, and provides steps that policymakers can take to mitigate the damage and protect everyday people from bear
The State Of The $1.7 Trillion AI Bubble: The End Of Thinking
Writing is thinking and thinking is understanding. Like understanding that the AI bubble has been around for a long time and that it's better to call it the data bubble.
March 2026 Global Dialogues Survey | Windfall Trust
Here’s what the world had to say about the AI economy
What Sort of AI Bubble Are We In?
Think broadband. Or, potentially, the 2008 housing market.
State of AI 2026 | The Industry-Defining Report
Explore how AI is shaping the digital economy in 2026, with 80+ pages of data on ad spend, app downloads, web behavior, user demographics, and so much more.
Thesis on value accumulation in AI.
Recently, I’ve been thinking about where I want to focus my angel investing in 2024, and decided to document my thinking about value accumulation in artificial intelligence because it explains the shape of my interest–or lack thereof–in investing in artificial intelligence tooling. I’ll describe my understanding of the current state, how I think it’ll evolve over the next 1-3 years, and then end with how that shapes what I’m investing in.
AI Is A Money Trap
In the last week, we’ve had no less than three different pieces asking whether the massive proliferation of data centers is a massive bubble, and though they, at times, seem to take the default position of AI’s inevitable value, they’ve begun to sour on the idea that
Spending on AI Is at Epic Levels. Will It Ever Pay Off?
Tech companies are pouring hundreds of billions into data centers, taking on heavy debt, but current revenue is relatively tiny. Critics warn of a new dot-com bubble.
The AI bubble isn’t new — Karl Marx explained the mechanisms behind it nearly 150 years ago
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s warning of an AI bubble highlights a deeper economic problem: capitalism is producing more capital than it can profitably invest.
It Appears That the AI Bubble Has Just Burst in China
Media reports argue that the AI bubble in China is already bursting, with AI stocks losing nearly half a trillion in the past few months.
Andrej Karpathy on Twitter / X
Sharing an interesting recent conversation on AI's impact on the economy.AI has been compared to various historical precedents: electricity, industrial revolution, etc., I think the strongest analogy is that of AI as a new computing paradigm (Software 2.0) because both are…— Andrej Karpathy (@karpathy) November 16, 2025
