I’m taking a week off of premium as I’ve had a family situation that has absorbed a lot of my time this week, but I’ll be back with a barnburner next Friday (11/6). In the interim, I’m running a week-long sale — 10% off of
Farewell Stack Exchange
I am no longer a part of Stack Exchange. I still have much literal and figurative stock in the success of Stack Exchange, of course, but as of March 1st I will no longer be part of the day to day operations of the company, or the Stack Exchange sites,
Chicken Market: Season 3 Retro
season 3 closed on 2026-07-12. final: net -$43.27, rank 18/18, gap to first $1336.40. worth the full ledger before season 4 (already underway, day 1/7) buries...
Prediction Marketing
The prediction market boom is liquidity extraction before a liquidity crisis.
I Sold My Startup for $25.5 Million. Here’s How I Did It.
I sold my startup for $25.5 million on Monday just after 2:23 p.m. Pacific Time.
The first rule of pricing is: you do not talk about pricing
I’ve been slightly obsessed with pricing since 2010. Before joining Magnetic, I was part of the team that changed the price of The Times…
Ten Lessons From Ten Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Studies - Early Retirement Now
Last week, we published the Tenth Safe Withdrawal Rate Study! Amazing how time flies! I did about one case study every three weeks for the last 6 months! And I could even include another one if I were to count the one I did for the ChooseFI podcast back in 2017. In fact, the ChooseFI … Continue reading Ten Lessons From Ten Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Studies
Principles of Retirement Tax-Planning - SWR Series Part 44 - Early Retirement Now
March 22, 2021 – It’s tax season in the U.S. right now! Even though that deadline has just been pushed back to May 17, taxes are on everybody’s mind, so this is a good time to write about the topic in the context of the Safe Withdrawal Rate Series. Until now, I haven’t written all that … Continue reading Principles of Retirement Tax-Planning – SWR Series Part 44
Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice
<div> <div> <div> We challenge two tenets of lifecycle investing: (i) diversify across stocks and bonds and (ii) <span>reduce equity allocations with
LiveLaw Diwali Sale 2025 Extended! (Ending Soon)
Thanks to the overwhelming response and requests from users who missed out, we're extending the offer for a Limited Period. Don't miss this chance! Get up to 55% OFF on all premium plans this...
Is the online advertising bubble finally starting to pop?
I started calling online advertising a bubble in 2008. I made “The Advertising Bubble” a chapter in The Intention Economy in 2012. I’ve been unpacking what I figure ought to be ob…
FTX held less than $1bn in liquid assets against $9bn in liabilities
Vast gap highlights the dire state of Sam Bankman-Fried’s exchange before it collapsed into bankruptcy
That’ll do pig, that’ll do
This is the completely unglamorous story of my startup I co-founded with my friend and business partner, Adam Bickford. A couple months ago it was acquired by our first investor who now manages it …
There are new and specific numbers in this story, so it’s worth reading. I continue to resent the lack of credit to Nick Schwellenbach at @pogo.org, Dan Friedman at @motherjones.com, and me, who have previously reported every other aspect of this story, including that the sale prices were very high.
If Bain Capital Crypto et al invest $100M at roughly a ~$700M–$1B valuation, they likely own somewhere in the range of 10–15% of the company post-money. For a 10x return on their cheque, a $7B–$10B exit is expected. That’s exciting and scary.
Johannes Ernst
$100 million for Bluesky? A year ago? What the …
Staying in the game I'm four months into my interim CEO role at Bluesky, and it's time for an update. Most importantly, as of today, the interim part of the title is gone. I'm... toni.org/2026/07/10/staying-in-the-gam…
Staying in the game
toni.org
