How do you know you’re making the right bet with your idea? Which bets does the success of your idea hinge on? These are your riskiest assumptions; they need to be tested.
WRKSHP.tools | Job Map Canvas
Thinking about what your customer is trying to achieve as a way to define your value proposition just makes a lot of sense, instinctively. But how do you actually define that elusive Job to be Done? The Job Map Canvas can help!
WRKSHP.tools | Customer Need Canvas
The Customer Need Canvas helps you to make sense of the different needs you have uncovered for your potential customers.
WRKSHP.tools | Risk Reward Matrix
The Risk Reward Matrix helps you to balance Risk and Reward when choosing among options.
People Reject Algorithms in Uncertain Decision Domains Because They Have Diminishing Sensitivity to Forecasting Error
Will people use self-driving cars, virtual doctors, and other algorithmic decision-makers if they outperform humans? The answer depends on the uncertainty inherent in the decision domain. We propose that people have diminishing sensitivity to forecasting error and that this preference results in people favoring riskier (and often worse-performing) decision-making methods, such as human judgment, in inherently uncertain domains. In nine studies ( N = 4,820), we found that (a) people have diminishing sensitivity to each marginal unit of error that a forecast produces, (b) people are less likely to use the best possible algorithm in decision domains that are more unpredictable, (c) people choose between decision-making methods on the basis of the perceived likelihood of those methods producing a near-perfect answer, and (d) people prefer methods that exhibit higher variance in performance (all else being equal). To the extent that investing, medical decision-making, and other domains are inherently uncertain, people may be unwilling to use even the best possible algorithm in those domains.
Weighted DVF: A Simple Model for Scoring and Prioritizing Ideas
Discover a powerful yet straightforward approach to evaluating new ideas by balancing desirability, viability, and feasibility. Learn how…
How Bad Entrepreneurs Reveal Themselves in the First 5 Seconds of a Pitch
A few simple words is all it takes to figure out a founder’s odds of startup success.
AI Researchers On AI Risk
I first became interested in AI risk back around 2007. At the time, most people’s response to the topic was “Haha, come back when anyone believes this besides random Internet crackpots.…
Cognitive Bias Lab | Learn to Make Better Decisions
Explore cognitive biases with interactive tests, simulations, and real-world examples. Free platform to sharpen decision-making and critical thinking — no sign-up needed.
The Four Big Risks | Silicon Valley Product Group
In the first edition of my book, INSPIRED, I discussed how successful products are valuable, usable and feasible, where I defined “valuable” as both valuable to customers and valuable to your business. While it’s easy to remember these three attributes, over the years I’ve come to believe that it was obscuring some pretty serious risks and...
On technological optimism and technological pragmatism
"There are no guarantees that things are going to turn out very well for anyone.”
Reversing Assumptions Technique — Think Jar Collective
Think Jar Collective contributor and creativity expert Michael Michalko shares a technique to challenge our own assumptions and in the process spark new thinking.
WRKSHP.tools | Trend Canvas
The Trend Canvas helps you map different trends in the world around your business that may impact you in the future.
Risk of bias tools - Current version of RoB 2
Current version Download the 22 August 2019 version: The full guidance document. The cribsheet summarizing the tool. A template for completing the assessment. An Excel tool to implement RoB 2 (contains macros; download to your computer before using; some text is slightly out of date). We have
Characterizing the causes, dynamics, and consequences of choice deferral
The fact that people often avoid making decisions is well known, and past research has helped to identify some of the conditions and reasons for doing so. For instance, people may forgo choices between bad options because they prefer not to end up with one of those options. It is much less clear when and why people avoid choosing in cases where they eventually will have to make a given decision. To study such instances of choice deferral, we presented participants with a series of choices, and for each choice they were allowed to either choose immediately or defer the decision until later in the experiment. Across six experiments and three choice domains (choices among consumer goods, artwork, and political candidates), we find that the strongest predictor of choice deferral is the overall value of a given set of options, with relative value (i.e., how hard it is to identify the best option) counterintuitively playing a smaller role. We show that the influence of overall value on choice deferral can be accounted for by a dynamic decision model according to which participants appraise the option set relative to a criterion before deciding whether to choose or defer, comparing this to a previous model whereby participants make such a decision based on a predetermined decision time limit. We further reveal that the influence of overall value on choice deferral is determined by how congruent options are with a given choice goal (choose-best or choose-worst) rather than simply how bad those options are. Collectively, our findings shed new light on how people decide to put off the inevitable.
On the edge: the art of risking everything
"From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk-and the players raising the stakes In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape-and dominate-so much of modern life. These professional risk takers-poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors-can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century. By embedding within the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI. The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset-including the flaws in their thinking-is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk; appreciation of uncertainty; affinity for numbers; skill at de-coupling; self-reliance and a distrust of the conventional wisdom. For the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale. Taking us behind-the-scenes from casinos to venture capital firms to the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply-reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of powerbrokers and risk takers"--
WRKSHP.tools | Ikigai Canvas
The Ikigai exercise can help you to define your personal perspective, by asking yourself four key questions.