WRKSHP.tools | Uncertainty Matrix

WRKSHP.tools | Risk Reward Matrix

The Risk Reward Matrix helps you to balance Risk and Reward when choosing among options.

Uncertainty limits the use of power analysis.

People Reject Algorithms in Uncertain Decision Domains Because They Have Diminishing Sensitivity to Forecasting Error

Will people use self-driving cars, virtual doctors, and other algorithmic decision-makers if they outperform humans? The answer depends on the uncertainty inherent in the decision domain. We propose that people have diminishing sensitivity to forecasting error and that this preference results in people favoring riskier (and often worse-performing) decision-making methods, such as human judgment, in inherently uncertain domains. In nine studies ( N = 4,820), we found that (a) people have diminishing sensitivity to each marginal unit of error that a forecast produces, (b) people are less likely to use the best possible algorithm in decision domains that are more unpredictable, (c) people choose between decision-making methods on the basis of the perceived likelihood of those methods producing a near-perfect answer, and (d) people prefer methods that exhibit higher variance in performance (all else being equal). To the extent that investing, medical decision-making, and other domains are inherently uncertain, people may be unwilling to use even the best possible algorithm in those domains.

Our Uncertain Uncertainties

Even the experts inventing AI don’t know what will happen next.

Designing for Uncertainty - AT Protocol

Ethan Marcotte, who first coined the phrase Responsive Design, joins to discuss how to operate in a world defined by uncertainty.

AI and the Wisdom of Uncertainty

AI chatbots rarely say "I don't know," and neither, increasingly, do we. But we can cultivate our epistemic resilience.

“The Problem Factory”- Preemptive risk aversion in infrastructure planning and the role of professional services - Niskanen Center

In a small site of special scientific interest about 20 miles northwest of Oxford, a “shed” is being built.

The Four Big Risks | Silicon Valley Product Group

In the first edition of my book, INSPIRED, I discussed how successful products are valuable, usable and feasible, where I defined “valuable” as both valuable to customers and valuable to your business.  While it’s easy to remember these three attributes, over the years I’ve come to believe that it was obscuring some pretty serious risks and...

Risk of bias tools - Current version of RoB 2

Current version Download the 22 August 2019 version: The full guidance document. The cribsheet summarizing the tool. A template for completing the assessment. An Excel tool to implement RoB 2 (contains macros; download to your computer before using; some text is slightly out of date). We have

WayFinder Philosophy | WayFinders Network

Wayfinding is a way of navigating through the uncertainty and complexity of the modern world

Theory of Constraints - The Decision Lab

The theory of constraints is a systems-based methodology that identifies and addresses the weakest link in a process or system.

PLC Threat-modeling & Auditability - Daniel's Leaflets

Silicon Valley, disruption, and the end of uncertainty

This paper reflects on the relationship between high-tech disruption narratives and uncertainty. My main argument is that an economic sociology of the future is incomplete without addressing the ‘d...

Robust Open Online Safety Tools