A WSJ analysis shows a small number of accounts on Polymarket and Kalshi—often pros using data-driven algorithmic trading—take home most of the winnings.
A Star Investor's Tale of Risk, Ruin & Reinvention w/ Victor Haghani (RWH071)
The Danger of Keeping Score | On the Media | WNYC Studios
Last Friday, the Washington state Attorney General sued Kalshi, the prediction market platform where users can place bets on real world events, such as the number of deportations this...
US senators urge crackdown on wildfire betting amid warnings of arson risk
Experts say growing trend on sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi could motivate people to start fires to win money
The Machines of Capital
The Machines of Capital As Benjamin Graham famously articulated, in the short run the markets are a voting machine; in the long run the markets are a weighing machine. Price exists in both machines, but the deterministic mechanisms are different. During the voting machine phase, price is a funct...
Meredith Whittaker on Twitter / X
Now that even Goldman, Sequoia, and other major investors are calling it, it's good to remember that the shakiness of the AI market, and the mismatch between capex and ROI, has been clear for a long time to those of us who look closely at the political economy of AI. https://t.co/dLLNAcW5Sn— Meredith Whittaker (@mer__edith) July 30, 2024
From Pill Mills to Prop Bets: Prediction Markets and Mobile Sports Betting Apps Are Fueling America’s Next Addiction Crisis
Against the gamblification of the world.
We are all going to regret Kalshi and Polymarket.
Gambling should be like cigarettes: Legal but inaccessible.
AI Has Ruined the Job Market
Maybe flawed people were better than brute algorithms.
Top Chicken — the daily like-race, as a market
A play-money prediction market on Bluesky's daily Top Chicken game. Watch the like-race live, trade contenders, settle on the real announcement.
People Reject Algorithms in Uncertain Decision Domains Because They Have Diminishing Sensitivity to Forecasting Error
Will people use self-driving cars, virtual doctors, and other algorithmic decision-makers if they outperform humans? The answer depends on the uncertainty inherent in the decision domain. We propose that people have diminishing sensitivity to forecasting error and that this preference results in people favoring riskier (and often worse-performing) decision-making methods, such as human judgment, in inherently uncertain domains. In nine studies ( N = 4,820), we found that (a) people have diminishing sensitivity to each marginal unit of error that a forecast produces, (b) people are less likely to use the best possible algorithm in decision domains that are more unpredictable, (c) people choose between decision-making methods on the basis of the perceived likelihood of those methods producing a near-perfect answer, and (d) people prefer methods that exhibit higher variance in performance (all else being equal). To the extent that investing, medical decision-making, and other domains are inherently uncertain, people may be unwilling to use even the best possible algorithm in those domains.
Japan’s Nikkei Hits New Record High
The Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.8% to trade above 63,700 on Thursday, setting fresh all-time highs as strong corporate earnings and upbeat guidance reinforced investor confidence, while sustained demand for artificial intelligence-related stocks continued to drive gains. Japanese equities also mirrored a tech-led rally on Wall Street overnight, even as accelerating US inflation fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve could still opt for another rate hike. At the same time, markets remained focused on the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with discussions expected to prioritize trade relations. Among individual movers, gains were led by Kioxia Holdings (1.7%), Furukawa Electric (1.5%), Advantest (2.8%), Fanuc (10.4%) and Resonac Holdings (15.6%). In contrast, mining firm Mitsui Kinzoku fell 11.8% after issuing a weaker profit forecast for FY2027 despite projecting higher sales.
