Generative AI for Pro-Democracy Platforms · From Novel Chemicals to Opera

Online discourse faces challenges in facilitating substantive and productive political conversations. Recent technologies have explored the potential of generative AI to promote civil discourse, encourage the development of mutual understanding in a discussion, produce . . .

The levers of political persuasion with conversational artificial intelligence

There are widespread fears that conversational artificial intelligence (AI) could soon exert unprecedented influence over human beliefs. In this work, in three large-scale experiments ( N = 76,977 participants), we deployed 19 large language models (LLMs)—including some post-trained explicitly for persuasion—to evaluate their persuasiveness on 707 political issues. We then checked the factual accuracy of 466,769 resulting LLM claims. We show that the persuasive power of current and near-future AI is likely to stem more from post-training and prompting methods—which boosted persuasiveness by as much as 51 and 27%, respectively—than from personalization or increasing model scale, which had smaller effects. We further show that these methods increased persuasion by exploiting LLMs’ ability to rapidly access and strategically deploy information and that, notably, where they increased AI persuasiveness, they also systematically decreased factual accuracy. , Editor’s summary Many fear that we are on the precipice of unprecedented manipulation by large language models (LLMs), but techniques driving their persuasiveness are poorly understood. In the initial “pretrained” phase, LLMs may exhibit flawed reasoning. Their power unlocks during vital “posttraining,” when developers refine pretrained LLMs to sharpen their reasoning and align with users’ needs. Posttraining also enables LLMs to maintain logical, sophisticated conversations. Hackenburg et al . examined which techniques made diverse, conversational LLMs most persuasive across 707 British political issues (see the Perspective by Argyle). LLMs were most persuasive after posttraining, especially when prompted to use facts and evidence (information) to argue. However, information-dense LLMs produced the most inaccurate claims, raising concerns about the spread of misinformation during rollouts of future models. —Ekeoma Uzogara , INTRODUCTION Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked widespread concerns about its potential to influence human beliefs. One possibility is that conversational AI could be used to manipulate public opinion on political issues through interactive dialogue. Despite extensive speculation, however, fundamental questions about the actual mechanisms, or “levers,” responsible for driving advances in AI persuasiveness—e.g., computational power or sophisticated training techniques—remain largely unanswered. In this work, we systematically investigate these levers and chart the horizon of persuasiveness with conversational AI. RATIONALE We considered multiple factors that could enhance the persuasiveness of conversational AI: raw computational power (model scale), specialized post-training methods for persuasion, personalization to individual users, and instructed rhetorical strategies. Across three large-scale experiments with 76,977 total UK participants, we deployed 19 large language models (LLMs) to persuade on 707 political issues while varying these factors independently. We also analyzed more than 466,000 AI-generated claims, examining the relationship between persuasiveness and truthfulness. RESULTS We found that the most powerful levers of AI persuasion were methods for post-training and rhetorical strategy (prompting), which increased persuasiveness by as much as 51 and 27%, respectively. These gains were often larger than those obtained from substantially increasing model scale. Personalizing arguments on the basis of user data had a comparatively small effect on persuasion. We observe that a primary mechanism driving AI persuasiveness was information density: Models were most persuasive when they packed their arguments with a high volume of factual claims. Notably, however, we documented a concerning trade-off between persuasion and accuracy: The same levers that made AI more persuasive—including persuasion post-training and information-focused prompting—also systematically caused the AI to produce information that was less factually accurate. CONCLUSION Our findings suggest that the persuasive power of current and near-future AI is likely to stem less from model scale or personalization and more from post-training and prompting techniques that mobilize an LLM’s ability to rapidly generate information during conversation. Further, we reveal a troubling trade-off: When AI systems are optimized for persuasion, they may increasingly deploy misleading or false information. This research provides an empirical foundation for policy-makers and technologists to anticipate and address the challenges of AI-driven persuasion, and it highlights the need for safeguards that balance AI’s legitimate uses in political discourse with protections against manipulation and misinformation. Persuasiveness of conversational AI increases with model scale. The persuasive impact in percentage points on the y axis is plotted against effective pretraining compute [floating-point operations (FLOPs)] on the x axis. Point estimates are persuasive effects of different AI models. Colored lines show trends for models that we uniformly chat-tuned for open-ended conversation (purple) versus those that were post-trained using heterogeneous, opaque methods by AI developers (green). pp, percentage points; CI, confidence interval.

How large language models can reshape collective intelligence

Collective intelligence underpins the success of groups, organizations, markets and societies. Through distributed cognition and coordination, collectives can achieve outcomes that exceed the capabilities of individuals—even experts—resulting in improved accuracy and novel capabilities. Often, collective intelligence is supported by information technology, such as online prediction markets that elicit the ‘wisdom of crowds’, online forums that structure collective deliberation or digital platforms that crowdsource knowledge from the public. Large language models, however, are transforming how information is aggregated, accessed and transmitted online. Here we focus on the unique opportunities and challenges this transformation poses for collective intelligence. We bring together interdisciplinary perspectives from industry and academia to identify potential benefits, risks, policy-relevant considerations and open research questions, culminating in a call for a closer examination of how large language models affect humans’ ability to collectively tackle complex problems.

Democracy as a Scaled Collective Intelligence Process: Points of Vulnerability and Augmentation

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Bridging Voting and Deliberation with Algorithms: Field Insights from vTaiwan and Kultur Komitee

Democratic processes increasingly aim to integrate large-scale voting with face-to-face deliberation, addressing the challenge of reconciling individual preferences with collective decision-making. This work introduces new methods that use algorithms and computational tools to bridge online voting with face-to-face deliberation, tested in two real-world scenarios: Kultur Komitee 2024 (KK24) and vTaiwan. These case studies highlight the practical applications and impacts of the proposed methods. We present three key contributions: (1) Preference-based Clustering for Deliberation (PCD), which enables both in-depth and broad discussions in deliberative settings by computing homogeneous and heterogeneous group compositions with balanced and adjustable group sizes; (2) Human-in-the-loop MES, a practical method that enhances the Method of Equal Shares (MES) algorithm with real-time digital feedback. This builds algorithmic trust by giving participants full control over how much decision-making is delegated to the voting aggregation algorithm as compared to deliberation; and (3) the ReadTheRoom deliberation method, which uses opinion space mapping to identify agreement and divergence, along with spectrum-based preference visualisation to track opinion shifts during deliberation. This approach enhances transparency by clarifying collective sentiment and fosters collaboration by encouraging participants to engage constructively with differing perspectives. By introducing these actionable frameworks, this research extends in-person deliberation with scalable digital methods that address the complexities of modern decision-making in participatory processes.

vTaiwan

Launched in 2014, vTaiwan is a decentralized open consultation process that combines online and offline interactions, bringing together Taiwan's citizens and government to deliberate on national issues. It serves as a model for People-Public-Private Partnerships (PPPP), involving government ministries, elected representatives, scholars, experts, business leaders, civil society organizations, and citizens in crafting digital legislation.

Digital Democracy in the Age of AI

For many participants, this was their first interaction with AI in a deliberative context.

AI can help humans find common ground in democratic deliberation

Finding agreement through a free exchange of views is often difficult. Collective deliberation can be slow, difficult to scale, and unequally attentive to different voices. In this study, we trained an artificial intelligence (AI) to mediate human deliberation. Using participants’ personal opinions and critiques, the AI mediator iteratively generates and refines statements that express common ground among the group on social or political issues. Participants ( N = 5734) preferred AI-generated statements to those written by human mediators, rating them as more informative, clear, and unbiased. Discussants often updated their views after the deliberation, converging on a shared perspective. Text embeddings revealed that successful group statements incorporated dissenting voices while respecting the majority position. These findings were replicated in a virtual citizens’ assembly involving a demographically representative sample of the UK population. , Editor’s summary To act collectively, groups must reach agreement; however, this can be challenging when discussants present very different but valid opinions. Tessler et al . investigated whether artificial intelligence (AI) can help groups reach a consensus during democratic debate (see the Policy Forum by Nyhan and Titiunik). The authors trained a large language model called the Habermas Machine to serve as an AI mediator that helped small UK groups find common ground while discussing divisive political issues such as Brexit, immigration, the minimum wage, climate change, and universal childcare. Compared with human mediators, AI mediators produced more palatable statements that generated wide agreement and left groups less divided. The AI’s statements were more clear, logical, and informative without alienating minority perspectives. This work carries policy implications for AI’s potential to unify deeply divided groups. —Ekeoma Uzogara , INTRODUCTION Democracy, at its best, rests upon the free and equal exchange of views among people with diverse perspectives. Collective deliberation can be effectively supported by structured events, such as citizens’ assemblies, but such events are expensive, are difficult to scale, and can result in voices being heard unequally. This study investigates the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to overcome these limitations, using AI mediation to help people find common ground on complex social and political issues. RATIONALE We asked whether an AI system based on large language models (LLMs) could successfully capture the underlying shared perspectives of a group of human discussants by writing a “group statement” that the discussants would collectively endorse. Inspired by Jürgen Habermas’s theory of communicative action, we designed the “Habermas Machine” to iteratively generate group statements that were based on the personal opinions and critiques from individual users, with the goal of maximizing group approval ratings. Through successive rounds of human data collection, we used supervised fine-tuning and reward modeling to progressively enhance the Habermas Machine’s ability to capture shared perspectives. To evaluate the efficacy of AI-mediated deliberation, we conducted a series of experiments with over 5000 participants from the United Kingdom. These experiments investigated the impact of AI mediation on finding common ground, how the views of discussants changed across the process, the balance between minority and majority perspectives in group statements, and potential biases present in those statements. Lastly, we used the Habermas Machine for a virtual citizens’ assembly, assessing its ability to support deliberation on controversial issues within a demographically representative sample of UK residents. RESULTS Group opinion statements generated by the Habermas Machine were consistently preferred by group members over those written by human mediators and received higher ratings from external judges for quality, clarity, informativeness, and perceived fairness. AI-mediated deliberation also reduced division within groups, with participants’ reported stances converging toward a common position on the issue after deliberation; this result did not occur when discussants directly exchanged views, unmediated. Although support for the majority position increased after deliberation, the Habermas Machine demonstrably incorporated minority critiques into revised statements. We replicated these results in a virtual citizens’ assembly, additionally finding that during AI-mediated deliberation, the views of groups of discussants tended to move in a similar direction on controversial issues. These shifts were not attributable to biases in the AI, suggesting that the deliberation process genuinely aided the emergence of shared perspectives on potentially polarizing social and political issues. CONCLUSION This research demonstrates the potential of AI to enhance collective deliberation by finding common ground among discussants with diverse views. The AI-mediated approach is time-efficient, fair, scalable, and outperforms human mediators on key dimensions. Rather than simply appealing to the majority, the Habermas Machine prominently incorporated dissenting voices into the group statements. AI-assisted deliberation is not without its risks, however; to ensure fair and inclusive debate, steps must be taken to ensure users are representative of the target population and are prepared to contribute in good faith. Under such conditions, AI may be leveraged to improve collective decision-making across various domains, from contract negotiations and conflict resolution to political discussions and citizens’ assemblies. The Habermas Machine offers a promising tool for finding agreement and promoting collective action in an increasingly divided world. AI helps people find common ground in collective deliberation. (Left) The AI mediator uses participants’ opinions to generate group statements and iteratively refines those statements through participants’ critiques. (Middle) Statements from the AI mediator (purple) garner stronger endorsement than those written by a human mediator (orange). (Right) AI mediation leaves groups less divided after deliberation, whereas simply sharing opinions with others does not.

Using Collective Dialogues and AI to Find Common Ground Between Israeli and Palestinian Peacebuilders

A growing body of work has shown that AI-assisted methods -- leveraging large language models, social choice methods, and collective dialogues -- can help navigate polarization and surface common ground in controlled lab settings. But what can these approaches contribute in real-world contexts? We present a case study applying these techniques to find common ground between Israeli and Palestinian peacebuilders in the period following October 7th, 2023. From April to July 2024 an iterative deliberative process combining LLMs, bridging-based ranking, and collective dialogues was conducted in partnership with the Alliance for Middle East Peace. Around 138 civil society peacebuilders participated including Israeli Jews, Palestinian citizens of Israel, and Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza. The process resulted in a set of collective statements, including demands to world leaders, with at least 84% agreement from participants on each side. In this paper, we document the process, results, challenges, and important open questions.