How to catch the market at the right time
Prediction Marketing
The prediction market boom is liquidity extraction before a liquidity crisis.
Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets
A WSJ analysis shows a small number of accounts on Polymarket and Kalshi—often pros using data-driven algorithmic trading—take home most of the winnings.
When to Design for Emergence
Market applications on the long-tail of user needs
Advertising as a Reminder: Evidence from the Dutch State Lottery
We show that advertising can act as a reminder for consumers who intend to buy a product. , Consumers who intend to buy a product may forget to do so because they suffer from limited attention. Therefore, they may value being reminded by an advertisement. This reminder effect of advertising could be important in many markets but is usually difficult to document. We study it in the context of buying a product that has existed for almost 300 years: a ticket for the Dutch State Lottery. This context is particularly suitable for our analysis because the product is simple, it is very well known, and there are multiple fixed and known purchase cycles per year. Moreover, radio and TV advertisements are designed explicitly to remind consumers to buy a lottery ticket before the draw. This can conveniently be done online. We develop an approach to distinguish reminder effects of advertising from other effects, such as conveying information about the size of the jackpot. The key idea is that reminder effects are short lived. We use minute-level advertising and online sales data and find that the reminder effect of advertising is strong. Reaching 1% of the population by a radio advertisement leads to an increase in online sales of 1.55% in the four hours after the advertisement is aired. For TV advertisements, the increase is 0.78%. We show that the effects generally last longer for radio advertisements. We also provide direct evidence that reminding consumers not only affects the timing of purchases but also leads to market expansion. Finally, we estimate a model of consumer behavior under limited attention to quantify the effect on total sales. We find that total sales would be 16.7% lower without the reminder effect of advertising and that shifting advertising to the week of the draw would lead to a 9.2% increase in sales. History: Puneet Manchanda served as the senior editor and Günter Hitsch served as associate editor for this article. Supplemental Material: A replication package with code and log files and an Online Appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2022.1405 .
Steve Blank How to Find a Market? Use Jobs-To-Be-Done as the Front End of Customer Discovery
Modern entrepreneurship began at the turn of the 21st century with the observation that startups aren’t smaller versions of large companies – large companies at their core execute known business mo…
SaaS Isn’t Dead. Sameness Is. - The Phoenix Architecture
Everyone suddenly wants to tell you SaaS is dead. The Klarna-replaced-Salesforce story spread because it fit the mood, whatever the exact boundary between “…
Wave: Small Business Software - Wave Financial
Create beautiful invoices, accept online payments, and make accounting easy—all in one place—with Wave’s suite of money management tools.
AIDA model | Marketing | Research Starters | EBSCO Research
<p>The AIDA model is a marketing framework that outlines the stages consumers typically go through when making a purchasing decision: Attention, Interest, Desire, and Action. Developed in the late 19th century by American marketer Elias St. Elmo Lewis and later refined by Edward Strong in the 1920s, this model aims to guide marketers in capturing potential buyers' attention and leading them toward a purchase. </p> <p>In the Attention stage, marketers employ engaging strategies to attract consumers, often using eye-catching visuals or intriguing information. Next, the Interest stage focuses on maintaining that attention through memorable content or relatable messaging. The Desire stage demonstrates how a product or service fulfills the consumer's needs, often using persuasive techniques like testimonials or demonstrations. Finally, the Action stage prompts the consumer to make a purchase, providing clear instructions on how to proceed.</p> <p>While the AIDA model remains relevant, marketers today may adapt it to incorporate new elements, such as Retention or Satisfaction, reflecting the evolving digital landscape and consumer behavior. Overall, the AIDA model serves as a foundational tool for understanding consumer engagement and facilitating effective marketing strategies.</p>
What Investing in Software Looks Like in 2026
In case you quietly filed Point Nine under “boring SaaS investor” … well, first of all, I’m not going to blame you. We’ve been investing in…
The Market Curve
The market you choose to serve is one of the most important factors for an early-stage startup. And for most technologists, it’s a blind …
Open Market (openmkt.app) - An AT Proto Marketplace
Hey guys, I think it’s time for me to share my project here. I’ve been working on this idea since last year, had a very cold launch in January, and have reached a point of stability where I’m confident the app is ready for the mainstream. Open Market is an aggregator (think of Google Shopping) aiming to help people promote their products, art, or anything they plan to sell. This includes used goods and pretty much anything else. The app creates a personal storefront for every AT Protocol user....
Create Your Private Forecasting Platform
Launch your own private forecasting instance with Metaculus. Combine the power of predictive analytics with internal expertise to address key strategic questions within your organization.
Browser Market Share Report for 2025 Q1 | Cloudflare Radar
Browser market share based on user-agent and client-hints
Browser Market Share Report for 2025 Q2 | Cloudflare Radar
Browser market share based on user-agent and client-hints
Search, Discovery, Pills, and Portals
Solving the distribution crisis in marketing
